Behind the talks, the conflict escalates in Tehran

The talks are ongoing, but they are not moving forward. While Washington is pushing for progress, what only weeks ago looked like unity is unraveling in Tehran. During the war, control held, messages were aligned, the leadership appeared unified. Now that concessions are on the table, that order is breaking apart. This became visible in the first round of talks in early April. Iranian representatives remained vague whenever details were discussed. Issues that had previously been considered negotiable were not elaborated. For the mediators, it quickly became clear that negotiations were not only taking place with the United States, but that a conflict within the system itself was unfolding at the same time.

At the center is an open power struggle. On one side are forces around the Revolutionary Guards, rejecting any form of compromise. On the other side are politicians who know that the economic situation leaves almost no room for maneuver. The pressure is coming from the outside and at the same time from within. That is exactly what makes every negotiation unpredictable. Those sitting at the table are not speaking for a unified line.

The second round of talks is already hanging in the balance. Officially, it is supposed to continue, but even basic confirmations are missing. Karoline Leavitt speaks of planned meetings in Islamabad with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. JD Vance stands ready if movement emerges. At the same time, Abbas Araghchi travels to Pakistan, but Iranian state media deny that there will be any talks with the United States at all. Tasnim states openly that there are currently practically no negotiations with the Americans. Two narratives that do not align.

Within Iran, the tone is sharpening. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, one of the central negotiators, is coming under increasing pressure. Mahmoud Nabavian attacks him publicly and speaks of a strategic mistake because the nuclear program was even put on the table. At the same time, Ahmad Vahidi represents a line intended to prevent concessions. Those who negotiate are attacked. The conflict does not remain internal, it is being conducted openly.

Mahmoud Nabavian is deputy chairman of the Committee for National Security and Foreign Policy in the Iranian parliament and thus part of a central body for foreign policy and nuclear issues. He belongs to the ultra conservative camp and is politically close to the Revolutionary Guards. In the current talks, he appears as a sharp critic of concessions and is exerting public pressure on the negotiators.

In Pakistan, the discussions had already reached the limits of what is possible. Talks stretched late into the night. At one point, Jared Kushner picked up the phone and spoke with Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. When he returned, a demand was on the table that left little room for maneuver. A twenty year halt to uranium enrichment. Shortly afterward, the talks collapsed.

Outwardly, officials are trying to project unity. Masoud Pezeshkian, Araghchi, and Ghalibaf speak almost identically and reject any notion of division. “There are no extremists or moderates, we are all revolutionaries,” Ghalibaf says. But these statements sound like a response to pressure, not an expression of unity.

The real problem lies deeper. The authority that ultimately decides is missing. Mojtaba Khamenei has been largely absent since the beginning of his tenure. No clear appearances, no visible leadership. In diplomatic circles, it is assumed that he is shielded and unable to act freely. That leaves no figure to force decisions as in past crises. In 1988, Ruhollah Khomeini ended the war with Iraq despite massive resistance and spoke of drinking a poisoned chalice. Today, there is no one to carry such a decision.

While disputes unfold at the top, the talks in Islamabad continue. Shehbaz Sharif meets with Araghchi at the prime minister’s residence, together with Ishaq Dar and Asim Munir. Officially, it is about the current situation in the region, in reality about whether a new round of talks with the United States will even take place. Araghchi states that Iran will continue to pursue mediation through Pakistan and will follow this path until a result is reached.

At the same time, it becomes clear how severely the war has affected the country. President Masoud Pezeshkian calls on the population to conserve electricity after strikes damaged the energy infrastructure. Less light, less consumption, because the system is unstable. While austerity is imposed domestically, something is cautiously reopening externally. At Imam Khomeini Airport in Tehran, civilian flights are resuming for the first time in weeks, including to Istanbul, Muscat, and Medina. Airspace is being gradually reopened while political stagnation continues.

For Washington, it becomes clear that the most difficult part is not sitting at the negotiating table, but in Tehran itself. As long as no one there has the final word, any agreement remains a possibility, but not a decision.