“The War Is Over - Until Someone Orders More Bombing”

On Tuesday, Marco Rubio publicly declared that the war was over. Just a few hours later, Donald Trump was already threatening new bombings against Iran. Exactly between those two statements, the entire situation around the Strait of Hormuz is now unfolding - a conflict of contradictory messages, military pressure and negotiations where nobody can clearly say anymore whether anyone is even following the same plan.

Iran declared on Wednesday that it is currently reviewing an American proposal to end the war. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Tehran would deliver its final response through Pakistan once internal consultations were complete. At the same time, almost the opposite message came from the Iranian parliament. Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the parliamentary security committee, described the alleged American proposal as nothing more than “a list of American wishes.” The United States, he said, would not achieve through war what it had failed to obtain through negotiations. Iran was prepared to respond again if Washington did not make “necessary concessions.”

Just hours later, Trump declared on Truth Social that Iran now had to “give what was agreed to.” Otherwise, “the bombing will begin.” The next attacks, he said, would take place “at a much higher level and with far greater intensity.” At the same time, Trump promised safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz once Iran agreed. He did not explain what exactly Iran was supposed to agree to.

„“Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that the war could end if Iran agreed to the previous arrangements and fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, he threatened new bombings ‘at a much higher level and with greater intensity’ should Tehran reject the agreement.”„

With that statement, Trump openly contradicted his own secretary of state. Rubio had still declared on Tuesday that “Operation Epic Fury” was complete. The United States had achieved its objectives. The war was over. On Wednesday, Trump suddenly described it at the White House merely as “a little skirmish.” Even within the administration, nobody now appears to be using the same description for the same war.

While diplomacy is being discussed publicly, the military situation continues to escalate. US Central Command confirmed on Wednesday that an American fighter jet had fired on an Iranian marked oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. The Hasna had ignored repeated warnings and attempted to break through the American blockade. An F/A-18 Super Hornet from the USS Abraham Lincoln fired multiple 20 millimeter rounds at the ship’s rudder. According to the US military, the tanker has since been unable to continue toward Iran. Earlier, the US military had already stated that more than fifty commercial ships had been stopped or redirected since the blockade began.

At the same time, Israel was preparing for further escalation. Benjamin Netanyahu convened the security cabinet on Wednesday evening and announced a conversation with Trump. According to the Israeli government, both countries continue to pursue the same objective: the complete removal of enriched uranium from Iran. Netanyahu stated that Trump believes this goal can be achieved “one way or another.” Israeli security forces were instructed to prepare for “every scenario.” Almost simultaneously, Israel struck the southern suburbs of Beirut for the first time since the ceasefire came into effect. According to the Israeli military, the target of the airstrike was a commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan unit. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah officially still exists, but attacks in southern Lebanon have not fully stopped for weeks. The strike on Beirut nevertheless marks a new escalation.

In Iran, the political leadership was simultaneously preparing the population for a longer crisis. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared in an audio message that people should not rule out new military attacks. The greater danger now, he said, was economic pressure. Iranians would rather die than capitulate. At the same time, he called for conserving resources, openly addressing rising prices and supporting the Basij militia in stabilizing the country.

Europe is now also trying frantically to regain control of the situation. On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron demanded the immediate and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz - even before any peace agreement has been reached. Paris and London are currently working on an international naval operation to protect civilian shipping. France has already deployed the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle to the Red Sea. The mission is intended to secure trade routes and prepare mine clearing operations once the security situation allows it.

But that is precisely where the problem lies. Iran now views control over the Strait of Hormuz as its most important leverage against the United States. On Wednesday, the Revolutionary Guards Navy openly declared that it would continue determining which ships are allowed to pass through the waterway. Safe passage, they said, would only exist once the “American threat is neutralized.”

The economic consequences are already being felt worldwide. Oil prices initially fell sharply on Wednesday because investors hoped for progress. At the same time, markets are now fluctuating almost hourly between fears of a regional inferno and hopes for an agreement. Even France and Britain, which remained militarily restrained during the fighting, are now openly pushing for a rapid solution because the ongoing blockade is placing increasing strain on the global economy.

Shipping reacted especially nervously after another incident on Tuesday. A container ship belonging to the French shipping company CMA CGM caught fire while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Several crew members were injured. At the same time, fears are growing in Europe that the conflict could spiral completely out of control while Washington and Tehran simultaneously negotiate and threaten new attacks.

Officially, both sides are talking about peace. At the same time, tankers are being fired upon, warships repositioned, aircraft carriers deployed and new airstrikes prepared. Everyone publicly claims to want stability. At the same time, every side continues expanding its military position. The war is supposed to be over, yet nobody behaves as if they actually believe it themselves.