Everyone is on the phone, no one is silent - Israel and Lebanon in direct contact

Trump told the New York Post that a second round of negotiations with Iran could take place within the next two days. First he named Europe as a possible location. Then he corrected himself. Pakistan again. He himself will not be there. He did not say who will represent the United States. The first round had lasted 21 hours and produced nothing.

At the same time, the US Navy is blocking Iranian ports. Six commercial ships turned around in the first 24 hours. One did not. The tanker Rich Starry, listed by the US Treasury as linked to Iranian shipping, owned by a Chinese company, bound for China, passed through the strait early Tuesday morning. US Central Command did not respond to questions about it.

Scott Bessent said on the sidelines of the IMF spring meeting in Washington that Chinese ships would no longer get through. “They will not get their oil.” Anyone who pays transit fees to Iran violates US sanctions. “That never ends well.” Iran had made tolls a condition for reopening the strait. Iran normally exports two million barrels of oil per day through the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade is aimed at removing up to two percent of the global oil supply from the market.

Historic meeting in Washington

Marco Rubio (US Secretary of State), Mike Waltz (US Ambassador to the United Nations), Michel Issa (US Ambassador to Lebanon), Michael Needham (advisor at the US State Department), Yechiel Leiter (Israeli Ambassador to the United States), Nada Hamadeh Moawad (Lebanese Ambassador to the United States)

In Washington, Israeli and Lebanese diplomats met for the first direct talks since 1993. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was there, along with Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese Ambassador Nada Hamadeh Moawad. Rubio said: “This is a process, not an event.” He does not expect a quick agreement. “We are working against decades of history.” Netanyahu said last week he was opening direct negotiations at Lebanon’s request. Topic: disarming Hezbollah and peace relations. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun put it differently - his side wants to talk about a ceasefire and the start of negotiations under American sponsorship. Both are sitting at the same table and mean something different.

While diplomats were meeting in Washington, the Israeli army reported that its ground troops had completely encircled the Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil and begun operations inside it. Targets were hit in Aadshit. Hezbollah continued firing - in the first hour after the talks in Washington began alone, the Israeli army recorded at least ten rocket launches toward northern Israel. The State Department in Washington emphasized that the talks with Lebanon are separate from the Iran negotiations in Islamabad. The goal: Iran should no longer determine Lebanon’s future through Hezbollah. The United States also approved an additional 58.8 million dollars for humanitarian programs for displaced Lebanese.

The dispute over whether the ceasefire with Iran also includes Lebanon remains unresolved. Iran and Pakistan say yes. Israel and the United States say no.The Israeli ambassador Yechiel Leiter left the meeting after two hours with a positive statement. Both sides are on the same side, he said. Both want to free Lebanon from Iranian influence through Hezbollah.

There was no response from Beirut.

Lebanon’s Information Minister Paul Morcos said on television during the ongoing talks that Lebanon would demand an immediate ceasefire.

Israel continued bombing southern Lebanon while the diplomats were sitting in Washington.

Israel has thus ruled out a ceasefire. It wants to disarm Hezbollah and conclude a peace agreement with Lebanon. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said the problem is Hezbollah, not Lebanon. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who came to power with the promise to disarm non state groups, wants a ceasefire first, then negotiations. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Kassem said his group wants a return to the 2024 agreement, with indirect talks mediated by the United States, France, and the UN. Hezbollah rejects direct talks. In Beirut, supporters of the group took to the streets to protest the negotiations. In Beirut, the bombing has stopped since April 8, after an Israeli strike on densely populated residential and commercial districts of the capital caused international outrage. Fighting continues in the south of the country. The Lebanese health ministry counts 2,124 dead since the beginning of the war on March 2, including 254 women, 168 children, and 88 medics. More than one million people have been displaced.

Several Iranian drones flew on Tuesday into the autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq. Kurdish counterterrorism units shot down two bomb laden drones over Erbil. Another hit a camp of the Iranian Kurdish exile group Komala. Three fighters were injured. Komala leader Mohamad Hakimi confirmed the attack.

The US State Department set a reward of ten million dollars for Ahmad al Hamidawi, Secretary General of the Iranian backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah - an organization completely separate from Hezbollah in Lebanon with its own leadership. The militia is responsible for attacks on US facilities in Iraq, the kidnapping of American citizens, and the killing of Iraqi civilians, the department said. Last month, Kataib Hezbollah kidnapped American journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad and released her after a few days - on the condition that she leave the country.

UN Secretary General António Guterres said in New York that international law is being trampled, especially in the Middle East. He called for new talks between the United States and Iran and stressed the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. At the end of the week he will travel to The Hague, for the 80th anniversary of the International Court of Justice. Guterres had previously praised in a phone call with Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar his constructive role in mediating the first round of talks. Pakistan is offering to host a second round.

Dar also spoke on Tuesday with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who in turn had called his Iranian counterpart. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty spoke with US envoy Steve Witkoff, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and with his Turkish and Pakistani counterparts. He warned of an unprecedented explosion in the Middle East. Oman spoke with Iran about free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump spoke for almost forty minutes. Both emphasized the need to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. China’s President Xi Jinping received Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in Beijing and warned against a return to the rule of the strongest. Xi had said the same sentence earlier in the morning to the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended the national gasoline tax until early September. The International Monetary Fund warned of lower global growth and higher inflation. The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, reaffirmed in Washington the goal of bringing inflation in the euro area down to two percent. Traders are betting on rising interest rates. The S&P 500 rose slightly on Tuesday and is approaching its January high again.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said her country will not renew the defense agreement with Israel that has been in place since 2005. The agreement regulated arms cooperation, technology exchange, and weapons exports. Defense Minister Guido Crosetto sent a letter to his Israeli counterpart Israel Katz. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar downplayed the decision and said the agreement had never had substantive content. Israel’s security is not affected. Trump told the Milan newspaper Corriere della Sera he was very shocked by Meloni. She is letting America do the work for Italy, which gets its oil from Iran. “I thought she had courage. I was wrong.” Meloni had previously called Trump’s attacks on Pope Leo XIV unacceptable. Trump and Meloni have not spoken for some time.

The Red Cross reported that the first aid convoy since the beginning of the war crossed into Iran on Sunday - via Turkey, because the route through Dubai is blocked by the war. The convoy is carrying bandages, tents, blankets, and hygiene supplies. It will take at least two days to reach Tehran. Spokesman Tommaso Della Longa said they hope to expand the route.

The convoy is moving through Turkey. The tanker is through the strait. The talks may take place. Maybe Thursday. Maybe in Pakistan. We are not unpacking our bags at all.