Trump’s Endless War - And a President Who Is Already Governing Against Reality

Donald Trump spoke about Iran at the White House as if he were discussing a television show whose ending simply still needed to be written. Tehran was negotiating “on its last legs,” he said during the cabinet meeting, and anyone who believed the midterm elections would pressure him into a quick peace did not understand him. Shortly afterward, American forces once again struck targets inside Iran. Four Iranian kamikaze drones were shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, and another launch site in Bandar Abbas was destroyed. While Trump spoke of progress, missiles were once again flying.

That contradiction now defines the entire conflict. Officially, Washington and Tehran are still negotiating a possible agreement. At the very same time, the American military continues its attacks while describing them merely as “defensive measures.” The White House is attempting to wage a war while simultaneously pretending it is already entering the final stage of a diplomatic breakthrough. But the longer this situation continues, the clearer it becomes that nobody can fully explain anymore what an actual ending is supposed to look like.

Trump urgently needs a success. The war has now lasted nearly three months, rising oil prices are causing nervousness even among Republicans, and criticism is growing within his own party. Senators such as Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Roger Wicker are already accusing the administration of allowing Iran to emerge weakened militarily but politically strengthened from the conflict. Particularly explosive is the fact that the current negotiations are in some ways beginning to resemble the very Iran deal Trump himself once destroyed. That is exactly what is increasingly unsettling many of his supporters.

At the center of the dispute is Iran’s highly enriched uranium. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Tehran now possesses more than 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. Technically, that is only a small step away from weapons grade material. Under the plans currently being discussed, Iran would have to dilute part of its stockpile and transfer another portion to a third country. Russia and China are theoretically being considered as possible candidates. Yet even Trump has now publicly stated that he does not feel comfortable with either country. At the same time, Iran has not even agreed to fully surrender the uranium in the first place.

While negotiations stall, the next front is already opening. Iran is demanding that any ceasefire must also include Israel’s fighting against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel, meanwhile, has made clear that it intends to preserve the option of continuing military strikes. In southern Lebanon, clashes are already continuing along strategic areas. Former Israeli military spokespeople are openly warning that Iran would immediately use any sanctions relief to rearm Hezbollah and Hamas.

At the same time, Trump is attempting to turn the conflict into a broader geopolitical restructuring of the Middle East. Several Arab states are expected, according to his vision, to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and even Pakistan are on the White House wish list. But according to information from diplomatic circles, several Gulf states reacted to Trump’s demands with outright disbelief. Saudi Arabia continues to insist on a Palestinian state as a condition, while Israel’s government categorically rejects exactly that.

It is therefore becoming increasingly obvious that Washington is trying to solve multiple crises simultaneously with one single agreement. Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, the Abraham Accords, and the American midterm elections are now merging into one enormous political high risk project. Trump continues presenting himself as a strong negotiator, but behind the scenes fears are already growing that while the war may be contained militarily, politically it could spiral entirely out of control.

In the end, this presidency increasingly resembles a permanent state of emergency. Negotiations continue while bombs fall. Peace is discussed while new targets are attacked. And a president publicly declares that he does not care about the midterm elections, even though nearly every decision of his administration now appears shaped by exactly that political fear.