Buried, Not Destroyed - Iran Has More Weapons Than Claimed

Western intelligence agencies estimate that during the ceasefire Iran recovered around three quarters of its missile arsenal, partly with Russian missiles. What Trump and his defense secretary celebrated as destruction was often nothing more than rubble covering sealed storage sites. What the war was fought for remains impossible to see!

Since the ceasefire between Iran and the United States took effect, Tehran has likely restored a substantial portion of its missile arsenal. Western intelligence agencies, experts, and journalists estimate that the country now again possesses around three quarters of the stockpile it had before the war, and part of it, according to reports, may have been replaced by the Iranian military with Russian made missiles manufactured last year.

Read also our article: The war beneath the ground - What becomes visible after weeks in Iran and what Washington keeps quiet

Which country supplied this assessment remains unclear. Research suggests that part of the stockpile consists with high certainty of Russian missiles produced over the course of last year, though exactly how many remains unknown. In March, at the height of the American Israeli campaign against Iran’s missile capability, intelligence services had still estimated the remaining stockpile at around 60 percent of prewar levels. But the decisive point is different. Many Iranian ballistic missiles and their launch systems were not destroyed but sealed off, buried beneath rubble that blocked access to underground storage sites. Tehran used the ceasefire, which took effect on April 7 and remains in place to this day, apparently to reopen those sites and redistribute its stockpiles.

By early May, Tehran had regained access within a single month to roughly 90 percent of its underground depots and launch facilities across the country. It also remains the case that although Iran has not yet fully restored its arsenal to previous levels, it will likely have little difficulty producing more in the near future. Iranian military production is spread across facilities throughout the country, making it exceptionally difficult to shut down.

American officials and President Donald Trump personally had previously claimed again and again that Iran had lost most of its weapons. Tehran no longer had a fleet and no longer had connections, Trump said in March, and it no longer had an air force while its missiles had been shattered into pieces. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared in early April that the American operation had rendered the Iranian military incapable of fighting for many years.

Between those statements and the assessment of intelligence agencies, including parts of their own intelligence apparatus, lies the entire war. What was celebrated as destruction was often nothing more than rubble over sealed gates, and the ceasefire that was meant to bring peace became the period during which those gates were reopened. While the victors counted debris, the other side dug out what the bombs had not broken but merely covered, and supplies arrived from Russia to refill the shelves. An arms network spread across an entire country cannot simply be bombed out of existence, it can only be declared gone. In the end, the question remains that this war could never answer from the beginning: what it was fought for. If what it set out to destroy now stands again at three quarters strength and the central question of the nuclear program continues unresolved, then its only certain products were the dead and the rubble. The claim of victory was the first thing the facts contradicted, and even afterward no purpose could be found.