All In - While Pakistan organizes talks, this war is draining American stockpiles

Shehbaz Sharif steps forward and speaks of diplomacy, of cooperation, of the principles of the United Nations. It is not an empty statement. Pakistan is actively working to restart talks between the United States and Iran. That is precisely why Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to Islamabad this weekend. A small delegation is accompanying him. This is not a signal that can be overlooked.

Witkoff and Kushner are also heading out on behalf of the United States. And still, that picture does not match what is happening at the same time.

Because while negotiations are supposed to resume in Islamabad, American stockpiles are wearing down. Since the beginning of the war at the end of February, the U.S. military has used around 1,100 of its long range stealth cruise missiles. Systems that were originally intended for a potential conflict with China. In addition, there are more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, about ten times as many as are procured annually. More than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles have already been fired, each costing more than four million dollars. On top of that come more than 1,000 ATACMS and Precision Strike missiles.

In the first two days, weapons worth 5.6 billion dollars were used. Overall, the estimated cost of the war now stands between 28 and 35 billion dollars, nearly one billion per day. At the same time, the Pentagon reports more than 13,000 targets struck. What this number obscures is obvious: large targets are hit multiple times. The actual consumption of munitions is significantly higher.

Officially, Washington maintains the line that everything is under control. Karoline Leavitt speaks of a fully equipped military capable of carrying out any operation. But at the same time, internal assessments and voices from Congress confirm something else. Systems are being pulled from Europe and Asia just to sustain operations in the Middle East. That is exactly where they are now missing.

The consequences are visible

In Europe, stockpiles intended for deterrence against Russia are shrinking. Exercises are being reduced, readiness is suffering. In Asia, carrier groups have been redeployed, air defense systems withdrawn, including components from South Korea. For the first time, interceptor missiles from the THAAD system are being pulled out of the region. This is not a routine process.

And the real problem? It lies behind it

Production is not keeping up. Senator Jack Reed says openly that it could take years to rebuild the depleted stockpiles. Mark Cancian points out that key systems were already scarce before the war and are now even more limited. At the same time, the Pentagon is waiting for new funding from Congress in order to be able to place larger orders with industry at all.

Amid all this, Pakistan is trying to keep a negotiation channel open. Shehbaz Sharif speaks of cooperation while Abbas Araghchi travels to Islamabad. The movement is real. But it is running parallel to a level of military consumption that is tightening every margin.

There is also an economic response

Donald Trump has extended the Jones Act waiver for another 90 days. This allows foreign ships to transport oil and gas into the United States more easily. The measure is intended to cushion shortages after the Strait of Hormuz has effectively become a risk zone. New data shows that this has in fact allowed more energy to reach American ports more quickly.

Everything is happening at once

Diplomacy is being organized while munitions are disappearing at a pace that cannot be replenished. Talks are being prepared while military systems are being pulled from other regions. Officially, the situation is stable. The numbers show something else.

And that is exactly where the contradiction of this moment lies.