Trump Needs a Deal With Iran - and That Would Mean Actually Giving Ground
Donald Trump keeps claiming that the U.S. holds all the cards in the war with Iran, but the reality in the Strait of Hormuz looks very different. More than five months after the war began, Iran can still threaten shipping with missiles, drones, and mines, while roughly 20 percent of the world's oil normally passes through the strait. Washington and Tehran now say an agreement to reopen it is close, but that's exactly where Trump's problem begins. The U.S. government rejects any arrangement that would permanently give Iran control over part of the waterway or the right to charge fees.
Tehran, meanwhile, refuses to go back to the way things were before the war, when Hormuz was used as an open international waterway. That's why a temporary solution is now being discussed under which ships would enter the Persian Gulf through an Iranian-controlled route and leave through an Omani-controlled route. Washington has so far insisted that there be no fees or other charges. Trump says the strait is currently "sort of open," but the numbers contradict any impression that things are back to normal.
There were 84 transits last week, up from 45 the week before. Before the war, there were regularly more than 700 a week. At least two ships were hit in the past week alone, while others reported near misses or warnings from entities claiming to represent Iran's Revolutionary Guard. At the same time, Trump is now acknowledging that certain U.S. ammunition stockpiles have gotten "a little bit tighter," while experts are warning in particular about declining stocks of advanced missile interceptors. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is already asking Congress for billions more for the Pentagon.
More than 14,000 targets have now been struck, according to Washington, without taking away Iran's ability to threaten shipping through Hormuz. Senator Mark Kelly therefore calls the ammunition shortage a self-inflicted problem from a war without a clearly defined objective. The political price at home is getting uncomfortable too: Roughly two-thirds of Americans now say the Iran war has not been worth it, gas prices remain high, and the midterms are getting closer. Former administration official David Schenker therefore considers it entirely possible that Trump will give ground on Hormuz. Eliot Cohen sees that as a particular problem for a president who divides politics into winners and losers. After thousands of strikes, the way out of the war could end up requiring a compromise with the very Iran whose control over the Strait of Hormuz Washington went to war to break.
Russia Wants the "Merry Milkman’s" Family Gone - Now It’s Hitting a Man Who Defended the Country for Years
Justus Walker became known in Russia as the "Merry Milkman." Now his family faces expulsion from the country the American made his home for decades. On August 7, Walker released a five-minute video titled "Our Family Tragedy," saying that Russian migration authorities had revoked his family's residence permits and ordered them to leave the country. He did not say exactly which members of his family were affected. Walker says he has lived in Russia since 1994, married there, had his children there, and has operated a farm in the Altai region for the past ten years. He says the family invested practically all the money it had available this year into further expanding its project. Now he is asking his followers to pray for his family.
Walker became famous in 2014 when Russian state television reported on Putin's food embargo in response to Western sanctions following the annexation of Crimea and the beginning of the war in Donbas. Walker was explaining why Russian producers would now have better chances against European competitors when he burst into loud laughter at the thought of Italian cheese no longer being available. State television turned him into the "Merry Milkman," and Walker became one of the best-known American expats in Russia. His enthusiasm for Russia, however, did not stop him from later going after the authorities. In March 2026, following the mass slaughter of livestock, he accused the Agriculture Ministry of "threats, bans, and bureaucratic pressure" and charged it with trying to destroy small and medium-sized farms.
Back in 2024, he had already joined a protest in the Altai region against gold mining. And as early as 2019, the very man who became famous because of Putin's food boycott was calling for it to be lifted, arguing that protectionism brings short-term growth but long-term stagnation. His residency status remains strange. Media outlets reported as far back as 2021 that his residence permit had been revoked, while Walker later said himself that he was a Russian citizen and therefore could not be deported at all. The family even traveled to the U.S. together in the meantime. What any of that means legally today may become clear on Monday, when Walker is due to meet with authorities and receive specific documents. The man whose laughter once fit perfectly into the state's story about the benefits of turning away from the West is now waiting to find out whether Russia still wants his family in the country.
Trump Administration Revokes Former Air Force Secretary's Access to Classified Information
The Trump administration has revoked former U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall's eligibility to access classified information. The Pentagon accuses the Biden administration official of disclosing classified information about Air Force One's capabilities to a media outlet without authorization. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said Kendall would also no longer be allowed to hold any position giving him access to sensitive information. Parnell did not say what specific information Kendall allegedly disclosed or which media outlet received it. The move follows a dispute that has been consuming Washington for weeks. Several news organizations, including The New York Times, had reported on security concerns surrounding the new presidential aircraft gifted to the United States by Qatar. The reports dealt in part with what modifications and security measures would be necessary before Donald Trump could use the aircraft as Air Force One.
The Justice Department responded with an unusually aggressive move against the press, subpoenaing New York Times reporters in an attempt to force them to reveal their sources. A judge sharply questioned the move, after which the department eventually withdrew the subpoenas. Now the administration is going after a former senior official it apparently believes was a source for the reporting. Parnell said safeguarding classified information is a duty that is not negotiable. But the Pentagon provided no public evidence in its statement showing that Kendall actually disclosed classified information. Kendall himself did not respond to a phone call seeking comment. For now, that leaves unanswered exactly what information the allegation concerns and how the administration concluded that Kendall was responsible for disclosing it.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Joint Defense Pact
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement in Mecca on August 7 that could have far-reaching consequences in the event of a military attack. An armed attack on any one of the three countries will now be treated as an attack on all three. The document is called the "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement," but exactly what military obligations it creates in an actual conflict remains unclear for now. Ankara says the pact is purely defensive and provides for mutual assistance only in defending against an attack. It is not directed against any particular country, and other countries in the region could join.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before the signing. Negotiations over the three-way alliance had already been underway for nearly a year. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed their own mutual defense pact in September 2025, also containing the provision that an attack on one partner would be treated as an attack on both. But their military cooperation goes back much further. Pakistan has trained Saudi troops for decades and provides technical assistance to the kingdom. During the Iran war, Islamabad deployed around 8,000 troops to Saudi Arabia, according to reports in May, along with JF-17 fighter jets, drones, and the Chinese HQ-9 air defense system. Ankara and Islamabad have also worked together militarily for years and supplied each other with warships and training aircraft. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, signed what was then its largest defense export contract with Turkey in 2023 for the purchase of Turkish drones.
The timing of the new pact is impossible to miss. Since the U.S. and Israel began their war against Iran on February 28, Iran and armed groups aligned with Tehran have attacked Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. At the same time, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carried roughly one-fifth of the world's energy supplies before the war, has nearly collapsed. Just one day before the agreement was signed, Riyadh warned of a possible coordinated attack by pro-Iranian groups in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have therefore not created some nonbinding discussion group. They have explicitly put in writing that a military attack on one of them will now affect all three.
Trump Is Losing Patience With His Homeland Security Secretary - Mullin Is Now Seen as Weak
Donald Trump is growing increasingly unhappy with Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, whom he brought in just over four months ago to replace Kristi Noem after firing her in March. Trump had had enough of the internal fighting at the department, so Mullin's orders were clear: Bring some calm to the place and keep the agency out of the headlines. By now, however, the president sees his former close Senate ally as weak and off message on major issues. According to a senior administration official, Trump still has no plans to fire him. What particularly angered him was Mullin's statement before the National Governors Association in Oklahoma City that immigration may take American jobs in some industries, but that this is not true across the board. In areas with low labor-force participation, immigration could even help fill labor shortages.
For Trump's MAGA circle, that was almost an affront to the administration's own deportation policy. Right-wing activist Laura Loomer, who speaks with Trump regularly, publicly demanded Mullin's firing and accused him of accomplishing nothing on mass deportations. A few hours later, Mullin wrote: "NO amnesty for illegal aliens. Ever." It was not their first clash. After two immigrants were fatally shot within the span of a week, Mullin temporarily halted most vehicle stops by federal agencies. Trump publicly reversed the decision just one day later and was additionally angry because his secretary had not told him about the policy change beforehand. The two also clashed on July 4, when Mullin wanted to cancel the fireworks on the National Mall because of lightning. Trump refused and mocked the suggestion in front of the crowd that same evening. Mullin caused more anger in late June after the Supreme Court allowed the administration to end temporary protections for 350,000 Haitians. Instead of reinforcing the promised deportations, Mullin said some could try to obtain permanent legal status.
At the same time, arrests under his leadership have risen sharply again after an initial decline. According to administration figures, ICE is now arresting between 1,500 and 2,000 people a day, although it is not publicly promoting those numbers. Even more dangerous for Mullin is the resistance within his own agencies to his choice for permanent ICE director, Lance Schroyer. The former Oklahoma Highway Patrol officer headed Mullin's security detail while he was in the Senate, but ICE officials say he lacks sufficient experience in both the federal government and immigration enforcement. Even Trump's border czar Tom Homan opposes the choice, while the Senate has yet to schedule a confirmation hearing for Schroyer. Mullin was supposed to bring calm to the Department of Homeland Security after the chaos under Noem. Four months later, his main job may be making sure he does not become the next Trump homeland security secretary whose tenure ends early.
Republicans Are Turning Their Convention Into a Major Reckoning With Democracy and the Political Left
Republicans are holding their first-ever convention immediately before the midterm elections in September, and instead of talking about Trump's poor poll numbers, the stalled Iran war, or the weak economy, a large part of the event is set to focus on fighting democratic socialists. For months, the party has been collecting video footage for what people familiar with the effort describe as a practically "endless" series of attack videos. Progressive commentators like Hasan Piker are expected to appear in them, along with Democratic Senate candidates Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico. The convention ends on September 10, exactly one year after Charlie Kirk's death. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are expected to speak, and Donald Trump is expected to attend as well. The party also plans to highlight Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his health campaign, along with Vance's anti-fraud task force. What is particularly striking, though, is what Republicans apparently plan to spend less time talking about.
Trump is heading into the fall with poor approval ratings, many Americans blame him for their economic problems, high gas prices are squeezing household budgets, and the war with Iran keeps dragging on. Yet democratic socialism, of all things, is supposed to provide a major part of the political target. Democrats are responding sharply. Party spokeswoman Kendall Witmer accuses Republicans of staging a multimillion-dollar celebration for Trump's ego while Americans struggle to pay their bills, buy groceries, and fill their gas tanks. But the political divide is not quite that simple.
While Republicans are going after socialists within the Democratic Party head-on, plenty of money is also coming from the party’s political center to fight its own left wing. The centrist group Third Way just announced $15 million to take on democratic socialist candidates. That creates a remarkable situation just weeks before the midterms: Republicans want to spend hours telling voters how dangerous the Democratic left supposedly is, while part of the Democratic Party is spending millions to push that same left wing back. While Republicans are turning democratic socialism into their big enemy, the very issues Trump himself will be judged on in the midterms are being pushed into the background: the economy, the war with Iran, and his own record in office.
