First the Evidence, Then Impeachment: Democrats Follow Trump’s Money Trail and Prepare Their Attack on His Presidency

Since this summer, a photo depicting Donald Trump’s second impeachment has hung in the Smithsonian in Washington, with visitors walking past it like an old battle painting. That image is exactly the lesson House Democrats are now drawing on as they shape their strategy. Twice they impeached Trump, twice the Senate acquitted him, and each time he was able to portray himself as the victim of a campaign against him. This time, according to four people familiar with the discussions, they want to do it the other way around, investigate first, then pass judgment.

Impeachment is not supposed to be the first step. We’re not going into this with that goal, says a senior party aide, and nobody wants to lose a vote on day one; the point is to build a solid body of evidence. Republicans hold only a narrow majority in the House, and the polls give Democrats a good shot in November. If they win the majority, they could issue subpoenas, compel testimony and launch contempt of Congress proceedings. Because the White House would likely fight every direct demand in court or simply ignore it, the more productive route runs through the companies doing business with the administration. The White House said it would respond to oversight requests regardless of who holds the majority. Trump has stopped the radical left’s agenda, it said, and will defend Republican majorities.

And there are plenty of those companies. Apple, Alphabet and Palantir have come up in the discussions, along with financial giants Blackstone and BlackRock, plus Tesla and other Elon Musk companies, anywhere government contracts or regulatory approvals are involved. There is no final list yet, and it could not be determined whether there are specific allegations against those named. The investigations are expected to examine Department of Homeland Security contracts and the financing of Trump’s White House ballroom, along with corporate donors and alleged pay-to-play deals. Some of the companies declined to comment, while others said nothing. Put together, it forms the map of a presidency intertwined with money.

The questions surrounding the family’s money go even deeper. 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm in which Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, is under scrutiny, as are investments by foreign sovereign wealth funds in companies tied to the family that could raise questions about influence over administration decisions. Because those funds are difficult for Congress to reach, Democrats want to obtain the records from American intermediaries connected to the Trumps. 1789 Capital did not comment.

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The groundwork is already underway. Party leaders are writing to companies and contractors and demanding records, which also lays the groundwork for future subpoenas. Robert Garcia of California and Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the top Democrats on the Oversight and Judiciary Committees, announced that they would expand ongoing investigations. From Pentagon contracts lining the pockets of the president’s sons to backroom deals for donors, Garcia said they would go after corruption, including the crypto billions. The first letters have already gone out. They were sent to media company Paramount Skydance over its ties to the administration and a planned deal involving Warner Bros. Discovery, to YouTube and its parent company Alphabet over a $24.5 million settlement with Trump, to private prison operator GEO Group and security firm Salus Worldwide over their contracts with the Department of Homeland Security, and to commodity traders Vitol and Trafigura over the sale of Venezuelan oil. As long as Democrats remain in the minority, the companies are free to stay silent, and most of them are doing exactly that.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has not ruled out impeachment on television, but has put the focus on people’s economic struggles. The option remains, those involved say, if the evidence reaches the necessary threshold. That is the quiet bet behind this strategy. If the investigations reach that threshold, the aide says, they will not hesitate to move forward. Corruption does not announce itself, it hides in contracts and funds, and anyone who wants to see it has to follow the paper trail, patiently and slowly, against a man who turns every investigation into persecution. The Democrats’ caution is the lesson of two failed proceedings, but it is also an admission that a loud accusation only makes their opponent stronger. Whether this ends with a judgment or just a mountain of files will not be decided by the evidence alone, it will be decided by the election in November.