The woman in free fall – why the White House has long been discussing the end of Kristi Noem

Karoline Leavitt can get as loud as she wants – it does not change the fact that people in the president’s circle have long been talking about the future of Homeland Security chief Kristi Noem. And not in the sense of a promotion. According to information available to us, officials behind closed doors are examining how to remove the secretary from her position without making it look like a loss of control. Trump is approaching the first anniversary of his second term, and the unease in the government apparatus indicates that someone has to go so the president can project strength. That Noem is becoming the top candidate for that role is no surprise.

In recent months, Noem has made herself a liability. The raids, the mass arrests, the open conflicts with governors – all of this has turned her into a figure who was useful to Trump for a time but is now becoming a risk. Behind the scenes, officials openly say that her tone is too harsh, her actions too unpredictable, and her political style could damage Trump’s own image. Anyone who causes unrest in the White House is never secure for long. And Noem now generates more attention than is healthy for a department that is supposed to operate quietly.

Leavitt’s outburst was therefore not the defense of a loyal colleague, but the first visible panic reaction inside an apparatus that knows someone has been selected to absorb the pressure. The more Leavitt talks about supposed “lies”, the clearer it becomes that the cracks are not coming from outside but from within the administration. It is the usual pattern: first comes the denial, then the correction, and in the end a resignation that suddenly is said to have been “voluntary”.

Noem feels this pressure. The fact that she stumbled last week over results from her own department that even Republican governors turned against has damaged her permanently. People on several sides say Trump is increasingly annoyed. He reportedly complained that Noem produces “too many side crises” and that they need “calm instead of headlines”. When the president uses words like that, the political end is never far away. The question is no longer whether Noem is in trouble, but when it becomes official. At the moment, they are still looking for the right opportunity: a moment big enough to show decisiveness, but small enough to avoid plunging the administration into chaos. The White House is buying time, but the dynamic is clear. Noem is no longer the strong enforcer Trump once needed – she is now the one attracting the storm he cannot afford.

It would not be the first time that someone in the inner circle goes from “indispensable” to “surprisingly no longer in office” within days. And everything suggests that Kristi Noem is on exactly that path. Not because of a scandal. Not because of a revelation. But because this administration always needs someone it can sacrifice when its own mistakes get too loud. If Noem falls, no one will be surprised. And that is the truly remarkable part.