10 years ago, Donald Trump blamed China for shuttered American factories and the decline of the middle class. On Thursday, President Xi Jinping is expected at the White House for a state dinner. Trump had a helipad prepared on the South Lawn for his arrival; his only regret, he says, is that his planned ballroom will not be finished in time. Trump himself traveled to Beijing in May. The 2 leaders could meet twice more at international summits before the year is out. The president who once campaigned on slapping China with punitive tariffs now gushes about his relationship with Xi.
The Chinese leader is a great gentleman, and the 2 get along extremely well, Trump said this month. Even reports that China had supplied Iran with satellite imagery drew a forgiving response from him: In his view, Xi had behaved reasonably well. Trump was also reluctant to discuss retaliation over his own 2020 accusation that Beijing had accessed American voter files. China might be different today than it was back then, he said. That still did nothing to answer the allegations he had made at the time.
Last year, Trump kept raising tariffs on China. Beijing responded by using its dominant position in rare earths, which are needed for electronic devices. The United States and China agreed to a truce in their trade fight. Michael Kovrig, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, attributes Trump’s change of course to the failure of his high tariffs and export restrictions to have their intended effect. In the contest over who had more leverage, Xi came out on top, Kovrig argues. Trump continues to insist that America is comfortably ahead of China. Kovrig is a former Canadian diplomat who was detained in China during Trump’s 1st term. Today, he points to another contradiction: Washington could join forces with its allies to put economic pressure on Beijing, while Trump is straining those very relationships. He has publicly mocked French President Emmanuel Macron. He has clashed with NATO over the position taken by some member countries on the war with Iran that he started. He is waging a trade fight against Canada, a longtime ally, while repeatedly suggesting that the country could become the 51st US state.
According to Kovrig, this approach is making Xi’s job easier. Western leaders are increasingly seeking talks with Beijing to stabilize their relations with China while dealing with the problems Washington is causing them. That gives Xi an opportunity to present his country as a more reliable partner, Kovrig argues. The warmer relationship has also taken concrete diplomatic form: While Xi met then-President Joe Biden 3 times on the sidelines of international summits, Trump and Xi now have reciprocal state visits on the calendar. The dinner is ready. What it will accomplish politically remains an open question. According to the US Census Bureau, America’s trade deficit with China has fallen compared with the same period in 2025. The administration points out, however, that Chinese goods may increasingly be entering the United States through countries such as Vietnam to get around the tariffs. The tariffs still in place have done little to slow China’s manufacturing industry. Beijing is opening up new markets and pushing out competitors there. China’s global trade surplus reached $1.2 trillion last year. Low-priced Chinese electric vehicles are putting pressure on automakers in Germany and Japan, as well as those in South Korea. Industries in Italy and France are under pressure, too.
Both governments are using the pause in their trade fight to prepare for the next round. China is building up its military and its artificial intelligence capabilities despite restrictions on access to the most advanced computer chips. The Trump administration is forming partnerships to develop rare earth supplies. At the same time, Trump wants to push AI development in the United States full throttle, even as new data centers face resistance from voters and leading companies in the industry have recently warned of safety risks. Anyone slowing AI development is helping China, Trump wrote this week. The technology will become the greatest engine of economic growth in history, he said.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies face allegations that they are training their systems on American AI models. Attorney General Todd Blanche, however, warned at the White House last week against broadly labeling China a bad actor in this area. Would Trump raise the allegation with Xi? The 2 presidents have an excellent relationship and make deals together, Blanche replied. The race for the technology continues. Apparently, discussing its rules is not supposed to put that good personal relationship at risk.
What Thursday’s state visit is supposed to deliver politically or economically remains unclear. Evan Medeiros, a professor at Georgetown University and a former China director on the National Security Council under Barack Obama, believes the relationship itself may be presented as the visit’s most important achievement. Right now, the United States needs to strengthen its ability to compete with China on several fronts, he argues. Trump is putting his faith instead in personal closeness and how that relationship looks in public. The helicopter can land, and the dinner can go ahead. What agreement will be left on the table after the plates have been cleared remains to be seen.
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