Mine clearance, markets, and midnight phone calls - how Trump’s circle turns his state of exception into a gold mine

Trump is not a strategist. Trump is a vessel that can be filled with whatever is needed. Anyone who wants to reshape the military in their own image uses him. Anyone who wants to profit in the financial markets uses him. And all of them together only need to make sure he stays upright, because he has to stay upright for the construct to work. The only question still being asked in this system is not what is good for the country, but who needs him next.

This is where Trump seems most comfortable - surrounded by his political allies

Pete Hegseth needs him right now for mine clearance. The U.S. Navy is supposed to clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian mines, Trump says on Truth Social, and he has ordered activity to be tripled. A sentence that sounds like determination and nothing else. The Pentagon told lawmakers in a classified briefing that the operation will likely take six months. Hegseth was asked about it and said the military does not speculate about timelines, but he did not deny it. It was allegedly said, he noted. A formulation that means neither yes nor no and avoids both at the same time.

Pete Hegseth, secretary of defense, by his own account acting without congressional approval - a war secretary. Completely out of place in this role, simply a total failure.

Experts say that even if the United States declares the strait cleared, Iran would only have to say not all mines have been found - and the effect is the same. It is not even necessary to have laid mines. It is enough to make people believe that it has been done. Iran can deploy mines with a speedboat more easily than the United States can find them. The small Iranian submarines capable of doing the same were apparently not destroyed in the war. Insurance broker Dylan Mortimer calls it the ghost of threat. Whether mines are actually there does not matter. Whether people believe they are there matters entirely. And Iran understands that better than anyone.

Whether even a single mine is present remains unclear. Iran has so far only spoken about the possibility. The U.S. Navy has sent two Avenger class mine countermeasure ships from Japan toward the Middle East, which were still in the Pacific on Friday. Two additional warships with mine clearing capabilities are already in the region. Divers, small teams, remotely operated underwater vehicles with sonar. An infrastructure that works, but is slow. Steven Wills, former lieutenant commander and expert at the Center for Maritime Strategy, describes mine hunting as pulling individual weeds out of a garden so that one can safely move from one side to the other. Mine sweeping is more like mowing the lawn. Both take time. And six months is a long time in a war that has already shaken the global economy.

Trump has no strategy in the Iran war. If you do not know what you are doing, the enemy does not know either. That sounds like an advantage. It is mostly idiotic. Hegseth is implementing this completely unrealistic plan and seems to hope Iran will watch with approval. What he does not say is how six months of mine hunting in a strait that Iran already controls psychologically is supposed to restore the confidence of shipping companies. Shipping firms will eventually be willing to take risks, experts say, especially because the passage is so lucrative. But insurers are already requiring shipowners to contact Iranian authorities before passing through the strait. Iran holds leverage, even without a single mine.

And then there are the markets. We have been investigating for weeks and are making progress in these cases. Someone placed a position against oil stocks eleven minutes before a Trump announcement, Trump makes the announcement, and the position is closed. A sequence that did take place, not only morally problematic but potentially criminal. Trump is glued to the phone late at night, calling donors and allies, talking, sharing, passing things along. Market moving information reaches a small circle before anyone else hears it. Jackpot. That is all it takes to determine the difference between profit and loss if you know what will happen in eleven minutes. The White House has not responded to inquiries on this. Which in itself is a kind of answer. In court, they will have to.

See also our article: “200 Million a Day - at the Gas Pumps Alone - We Are Investigating Unusual Market Movements.”

Trump’s second term is not a state of exception that will eventually pass. It is a permanent condition in which no president governs, but one around whom others govern, while he makes the announcements and absorbs the attention. The stage belongs to him. The substance belongs to others. And whoever is close enough fills the vessel with whatever they need - market advantages, military reforms, political agendas - while at the same time making sure the vessel stays upright. Because without him it does not work. And because there is no one left to slow it down.