Islamabad waits, Washington hesitates, Tehran blocks - and no one takes the final step

Islamabad - The trip was planned, the stage was set, the moment within reach. Then Iran pulls back its negotiators. In Washington, the planned deployment of JD Vance to Pakistan is halted. What was meant to be the next round of talks collapses just before it begins. What remains is a city waiting for something that does not come. In Islamabad, the tension is no longer loud. It sits in empty streets, in blocked access roads, in a security apparatus that remains in place even though no one can say whether it is still needed. Authorities keep the measures in place because it is easier not to scale them down than to rebuild them later. For people on the ground, that means a daily life that no longer works.

Many cafes are watching customers disappear. Sixty percent fewer since Sunday. Office workers can no longer get through, business travelers stay away. A single armed guard post is enough to show how seriously the situation is being taken. In supermarkets in the city center, deliveries are no longer arriving. Trucks are not getting into the city. The shelves are still stocked for now, but that can change quickly. Above everything hangs the energy question. Pakistan depends on supplies that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Liquefied gas from Qatar, diesel from Kuwait, crude oil from Abu Dhabi. At the same time, prices are rising, power outages are part of daily life. The economic strain is already visible, even before any decision has been made.

Politically, everything remains open. Donald Trump has extended the ceasefire and praises Pakistan for its mediation. Asim Munir and Shehbaz Sharif are at the center of these efforts, supported by a relationship with Washington that has grown in recent months. Pakistan has positioned itself as a mediator and has received international recognition for it. But recognition does not replace an agreement. Tehran sees it differently. Masoud Pezeshkian says Iran remains ready for talks but accuses the United States of undermining the basis for real negotiations. The blockade of Iranian ports is seen there as a violation of the arrangement. As long as it remains in place, Tehran does not consider itself bound.

Both sides are back at the edge. The question is no longer whether there will be talks, but whether anyone is willing to take the first step back. In Islamabad, you can feel how this stalemate is shaping the city. It functions, but it does not move. Businesses stay open, but the paths to reach them are blocked. People work, but under conditions that can shift at any moment. Everyone knows that a new date for talks would change everything again. And everyone knows that this is exactly what is not happening right now.

If the situation does turn, Islamabad will be locked down again. Even stricter, even more expensive, even more burdensome. That is likely the price that has to be paid if peace is the outcome. Right now, Islamabad is paying it without knowing whether anything will come of it.