Islamabad waits - Vance flies - And the Republicans stay silent

Islamabad - JD Vance boarded Air Force Two on Friday. He said the negotiations would proceed positively if Iran negotiated in good faith. If Iran tried to play the United States, the negotiating team would not be particularly receptive. He took no questions.

Vance, the man who has opposed foreign military interventions throughout his entire political career, is now flying to Islamabad to end a war he never wanted. Trump assigned him the task. Vance has two years until a possible presidential run of his own. Taken together, that explains why he is going.

What awaits him is anything but clear.

Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on Friday that two of the agreed points had not yet been implemented - a ceasefire in Lebanon and the release of blocked Iranian assets. These two points must be fulfilled before negotiations begin. Iran had not announced by Friday evening whom it would send to Islamabad.

Iran’s ambassador to Tunisia, Mir Massoud Hosseinian, told the press that Iran was in armed negotiations with the United States. Hands remained on the trigger because there was no trust. The management of the Strait of Hormuz after the war would inevitably differ from the time before. The right to uranium enrichment was non-negotiable, although the level was.

In Islamabad, command units, police, and security forces sealed off routes between the airport and the city at dusk. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi personally inspected the security arrangements. The city’s Red Zone will be completely closed on Saturday. Both delegations are expected to stay at the same hotel where the talks are to take place. They will also meet Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

Pakistan has earned this moment. Not through luck, but through decades of experience as a quiet mediator. President Yahya Khan opened the channel in 1972 for Nixon’s visit to China. Pakistan was a key actor in the 1988 Geneva negotiations that enabled the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. It facilitated the Doha talks that led to the 2020 agreement with the Taliban. This time it stepped in because Oman and Qatar were under Iranian fire and no one else remained. Sharif, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Army Chief Asim Munir seized this opportunity and turned it into an international role. Trump has for months called Munir his favorite marshal.

Pakistan also has a great deal to lose if the war continues. Most of its oil and gas comes from the Middle East. Five million Pakistanis work in the Arab world and send home remittances each year equal to the country’s entire export revenues. Fuel prices have already risen by 20 percent. In early March, 22 people were killed and more than 120 injured in protests in Karachi after the United States and Israel attacked Iran. Twelve more died when a mob attempted to storm the US consulate.

While Vance flies and Islamabad waits, Trump is fighting on another front - within his own party.

Laura Loomer - the term “far-right” is too mild for her. Yet she is accredited as a journalist to the White House and the Pentagon and has enormous influence on Trump

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Laura Loomer, a close confidant of the president and one of his loudest supporters, rejected negotiations with Iran and criticized Vance for leading the talks. Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia called for Trump’s removal under the 25th Amendment after his threat that an entire civilization could die. Megyn Kelly, former Fox News host, asked aloud whether he could not behave like a normal human being. On the Charlie Kirk podcast, the host asked what would end first - his show or the ceasefire.

Republican leadership in Congress remained silent. House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana and Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota have barely spoken publicly. Congress is in recess for Easter. Representative Dave Schweikert of Arizona said it was arrogant to believe one could talk about something whose reality changes every twelve hours.

The concerns run deeper than rhetoric. Sixty-three percent of Republicans support airstrikes on Iranian military targets, but only 20 percent support deploying American ground troops. Around 6 out of 10 Republicans are worried about being able to afford gasoline in the coming months. Inflation rose to 3.3 percent in March, the largest monthly increase in nearly four years. Gas prices saw the biggest monthly jump in six decades. The Federal Reserve will have to delay interest rate cuts indefinitely.

Recent election results are worrying strategists. In Georgia’s former Greene district, Republican Clay Fuller won by only 12 points - Greene had last won by 29, Trump by nearly 37. In Wisconsin, a Democratic-backed candidate won a Supreme Court seat by a double-digit margin. In Trump’s own Mar-a-Lago district in Florida, Democrats also made significant gains.

Der Zuspruch für Trump sinkt aktuell täglich in Amerika. Support for Trump is currently declining daily in America. Before the talks in Islamabad, Trump claimed Iran had no leverage other than blocking the Strait of Hormuz. In reality, that very blockade - through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil normally flows - is driving US inflation noticeably higher: consumer prices rose by 3.3 percent in March, fueled by the largest increase in gasoline prices in six decades. At the same time, Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi is pressing the United States to honor its ceasefire commitments in Lebanon, while Israel continues airstrikes there and Netanyahu is entering direct talks with Beirut - while ruling out a ceasefire.

Only about 4 out of 10 American adults approve of Trump’s performance in office. That is roughly where Trump stood at this point in his first term - before Democrats gained 40 seats in the House of Representatives in 2018.

Thousands of MAGA supporters are turning away from Trump

Israel excluded Spain on Friday from the US-led coordination center for Gaza peace. Netanyahu said Spain had defamed Israeli soldiers. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez had described the Iran war as illegal, irresponsible, and unjust. Spain’s Prime Minister Sánchez again called on the EU to suspend its association agreement with Israel, arguing that Israel was violating its obligations under international and humanitarian law. “Let us not allow a new Gaza in Lebanon,” he said in Barcelona. Shortly before, Israel had excluded Spain from the US-led group for humanitarian aid in Gaza; Foreign Minister Saar justified the move by citing Sánchez’s “obsessive anti-Israel stance.”

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem called on Lebanon not to make concessions for free. Lebanese residents are deeply divided over the announced negotiations with Israel - some see them as the only path to peace, while others do not trust Israel.

Kuwait reported seven intercepted Iranian drones within 24 hours on Friday. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard denied launching any attacks.

Vance is flying. Islamabad is waiting. And in Washington, the Republican Party does not know whether to treat this war as a victory or a warning.

Answers will come on Saturday. Maybe.