Make Diesel Expensive Again: Putin Gets His Deals, America Gets Even More Expensive Diesel

Donald Trump struck a deal with Vladimir Putin that was supposed to bring American drivers cheaper diesel. To make it happen, Washington reopened the American market to Russian fuel shipments for the first time in more than four years and eased sanctions on Moscow. Trump announced the agreement on October 9. Nineteen days later, a gallon of diesel in the United States costs an average of $6.35. When the deal was announced, it was $6.28. The price has gone up 7 cents. American consumers are still paying more, while Putin regains access to a market that had been closed to Russia since 2022 because of its war of aggression against Ukraine. Trump wanted to turn lower fuel prices into a political victory ahead of the November 3 congressional elections. So far, there's little evidence of that at the pump.

The agreement sounds enormous. More than 300,000 metric tons of Russian diesel were supposed to reach the American and international markets in October, with another 500,000 metric tons to follow in November. Trump then promised 1 million metric tons, with additional shipments to come later. His administration once again allowed Russian diesel imports, even though they had been banned since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion. The exemption remains in effect until April 7, 2027. Moscow, for its part, announced that it would ease existing export restrictions ahead of schedule. Just days earlier, Russia had needed those very restrictions to stabilize its own fuel market. Now, of all countries, Russia is supposed to improve America's fuel supply. All Putin has to do is deliver what Trump has already sold to the public.

Three tankers carrying Russian diesel left the port of Primorsk between October 16 and 22. Two of the vessels are under Western sanctions. They are expected to arrive on the U.S. East Coast between November 7 and 11, meaning after the congressional elections. One of the ships, carrying roughly 300,000 barrels of diesel, has already demonstrated just how uncertain the actual delivery is. At first, New York was listed as its destination. Later, that was changed to a port of discharge yet to be determined. There was no longer a specific final destination listed. The agreement has long since been announced as a political achievement, while out at sea, it's still unclear where even this shipment is supposed to end up.

The promised quantities also deserve a closer look. For October, the announced shipments amount to a little over 100,000 barrels a day, and for November, around 125,000. Last year, Russia exported an average of about 800,000 barrels of diesel per day. The additional volumes would cover only a small portion of what's currently missing from the global market anyway. On top of that, Russia has damaged and overburdened refineries, along with export restrictions that are still in place. That's why experts doubt Moscow can reliably deliver the promised quantities in the first place. Russian diesel production did rise again after the agreement. At the beginning of the fall, it stood at around 175,000 metric tons a day, falling to about 160,000 in early October. According to industry figures, it is now approaching 180,000 metric tons again. Russia normally needs approximately 140,000 metric tons of that for its own consumption in October. Under those conditions, roughly 40,000 metric tons per day remain available for export, and neighboring countries also have to be supplied.

Ukraine responded to Trump's agreement with sharp criticism. President Volodymyr Zelensky called Washington's decision "weak." Relations between Kyiv and the American administration have deteriorated since the deal was struck. Opposition is also growing in Congress. Lawmakers from both parties criticized the sanctions relief, while Democrats are demanding that documents relating to the deal be preserved and are examining its potential consequences for financing Russia's war. A bill aims to stop the agreement. While Ukrainian cities continue to come under attack, Russia is gaining new economic opportunities thanks to Washington's decision. Whether American consumers will ever see any meaningful price relief in return remains completely uncertain.

Trump promised relief, and Putin got sanctions eased. Before the first announced tanker has even reached American shores, diesel has become more expensive. The political costs of the agreement are already visible. Any economic benefits for the American people have yet to materialize. Washington keeps talking about lower prices. At American gas stations, diesel still costs $6.35 a gallon. And somewhere out on the Atlantic, a ship is sailing without anyone even knowing which port it will ultimately dock at.