A Ceasefire - For Now: Trump's Risky Balancing Act Between Israel and Iran

byRainer Hofmann

June 23, 2025

Washington / Tel Aviv / Tehran / Doha - Amid one of the most dangerous escalations in decades, U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly announced a complete ceasefire between Israel and Iran late Monday evening. The move, according to Trump, is to be implemented gradually within 24 hours. While the White House celebrated and Republican leaders hailed him as the "architect of peace," the capitals involved remained largely silent. Iranian state media made no comment on the announcement. The Israeli military also declined to respond. And yet, a diplomatic maneuver was set in motion that is as fragile as it is consequential. Previously, Tehran had launched a massive rocket attack on the U.S. military base Al Udeid in Qatar - a direct response to American airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. According to Qatar's military, 19 rockets were fired, 18 of which were intercepted. Only one struck the compound - with no casualties. Trump himself spoke of 14 rockets, saying "13 were shot down and one was allowed through." What followed was a remarkable change of course. The president announced via Truth Social that both sides had agreed to a "complete and total ceasefire." This was to begin at midnight on Tuesday (U.S. Eastern Time) in gradual stages: Iran would halt its attacks after six hours, Israel twelve hours later. Twelve hours after that, Trump said, the war would be "officially over." He wrote that it marked the end of a conflict "that will go down in history as the 'Twelve-Day War.'"

International reactions were mixed. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, praised Trump effusively: "This is peace through strength. President Trump deserves full recognition." Relief was said to be palpable on Capitol Hill. But different tones came from New York: Russia, China, and Pakistan introduced a UN resolution condemning the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The text, which will almost certainly be blocked by an American veto, calls for an immediate ceasefire, protection of civilians, and a return to a diplomatically anchored nuclear agreement - with guarantees for exclusively peaceful use. Meanwhile, the situation in the region remains tense. In Tel Aviv, Israeli emergency services are preparing for further attacks, and around Tehran, reporters are witnessing more airstrikes. There is no official confirmation from either country that the announced plan is actually being implemented.

But Trump insists on the significance of the moment. In another post featuring a photo of him wearing a red cap with the inscription "Trump was right about everything," he left no doubt about his self-perception. And his Vice President JD Vance followed up: the war was a "reset moment for the entire region." Anyone planning to build a nuclear bomb in the future, he said, must know "they are dealing with a very, very strong American military." Even the U.S. State Department responded immediately: the "Shelter in Place" warning for Americans in Qatar was lifted after it became clear that nearly all Iranian rockets had been intercepted and no further attacks were imminent. Qatari airspace remains closed nonetheless - out of caution. Whether the ceasefire will hold is uncertain. Whether both sides will adhere to the announced timelines is even more doubtful. But at this moment - at least for a fleeting instant - it seems the world may have narrowly escaped the brink, if it truly proves to be real.

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