America’s Descent into Superstition – 37 Percent of GOP Supporters Question the Holocaust – What a Manhattan Institute Survey Really Shows

The survey does not come from a left wing campaign office but from the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank usually far more sympathetic to the Republican world. That is exactly what makes the numbers so explosive. The respondents were asked what supporters of today’s GOP think of statements the institute itself described as “ideas often characterized as conspiracy theories.” Respondents were to say whether they considered these statements true, false, or were unsure. From the answers, a “net approval score” was calculated: agreement minus rejection. The result is a view into a political environment that is step by step moving away from verifiable facts.

On the origins of COVID-19, the values are far beyond the caution with which specialists speak about the lab question. Sixty-five percent of surveyed Republicans say the virus leaked from a lab in China. Only 27 percent say this claim is false, 8 percent do not know. That yields a net approval score of plus 38 points, a massive spike. This is no longer about “could be,” here the lab accident has already become a firm conviction for a clear majority, regardless of how thin the evidence is.

No less dangerous is the view of the 2020 election. According to the Manhattan Institute survey, 51 percent of GOP supporters are convinced the presidency was decided by fake ballots or hacked voting machines. Forty percent disagree, 9 percent are unsure. Net: plus 11 points. Courts, election authorities, Republican election officials in the individual states, all of that seems unable to counter the story of fraud. The lie of the “stolen victory” has long become a foundational belief in this group. Those who think this way no longer accept defeats as part of a democratic process but as proof the system allegedly works against them.

On September 11, 2001, the picture shifts slightly but remains disturbing. Forty-one percent of respondents believe the attacks were carried out by additional actors, possibly with the tolerance or involvement of their own government. Forty-eight percent disagree, 11 percent do not know. Net: minus 7. On paper, the rejection thus outweighs the approval, but only narrowly. Almost half consider a variant of the familiar “inside job” theories plausible. Two decades of investigations, commissions, documents, and still this distrust simply remains.

It becomes truly bitter with the statements on the Holocaust. The question was whether the murder of Jews under National Socialism was “greatly exaggerated” or did not happen in the way historians describe. Thirty-seven percent of GOP supporters agree. Fifty-six percent say this statement is false, 8 percent are unsure. Net: minus 19. But the number that sticks in the throat is the 37. More than a third of a major political camp in the United States believes one of the best documented crimes in history was overstated or in some core way different. When such doubts become socially acceptable, it is not a fringe problem but an alarm signal.

Even on the 1969 moon landing, the depth of distrust in government institutions and science becomes visible. Thirty-six percent of surveyed Republicans believe NASA faked the landing of Apollo 11. Fifty-three percent disagree, 11 percent are unsure. Net: minus 17. The skepticism is thus larger than the approval, but a third of respondents think one of the most significant technological achievements of the 20th century was staged. Those who believe their own scientific accomplishments are frauds will eventually lose the ability to recognize new accomplishments at all.

The final statement concerns childhood vaccinations. Thirty-three percent of GOP supporters believe childhood vaccinations cause autism. Forty-eight percent say this is untrue, 19 percent do not know. Net: minus 15. That a third believe this connection, even though the original “study” has been exposed as fraud for years, shows how effective fear campaigns against modern medicine are. This is not only about distorted worldviews, it is about real health risks for children left unprotected because their parents trust lies.

One can go through all of these values individually, number by number. They become truly visible only when one realizes who collected them. The Manhattan Institute is not a left wing alarm instrument but a conservative think tank one certainly cannot accuse of wanting to make the Republican Party look bad. Yet this is the picture that emerges: a party whose base in central questions trusts rumors more than verifiable information. A party in which, on some issues, approval of obvious nonsense is higher than confidence in documented research, official audits, or historical documentation.

The survey thus does not simply show a few strange opinions on the fringes. It shows how fragile the shared foundation has become on which a democracy must make decisions. When almost two thirds of a large voter group consider the origins of a pandemic settled even though research is still struggling, when half believe a lost election was stolen, and more than a third speak of “exaggeration” in the Holocaust, then this is no longer about differing political positions. Then the question arises whether one even shares the same concept of reality anymore.

Another part of the survey is also alarming because it shows how deeply racist and antisemitic attitudes have become embedded in the Republican base. Fifteen percent openly admit to holding racist views, another twenty-two percent wave it off and say they are tired of “cancel culture” and such attitudes should not harm anyone. Twelve percent want to use the votes of such people as long as they do not enter leadership positions, while thirty-six percent say that such individuals have no place in their movement. The numbers on antisemitism are even more shocking. Twelve percent confess to such attitudes, nineteen percent do not want to condemn them, and another twelve percent consider them politically useful. Almost half reject them, but the rest shows that a significant portion of the Republican electorate is willing to tolerate or even integrate antisemitic views. This creates a climate in which prejudice becomes socially acceptable and political movements begin moving away from fundamental democratic values.

That this diagnosis comes from a conservative institute is perhaps the clearest indication of where the GOP stands today. Not in a dispute about the best tax policy, not in a tough but honest debate about migration or foreign policy, but in an environment where distrust has become the basic attitude and claims seem more important than evidence. That is exactly what these bars make visible. And the longer one looks at them, the clearer it becomes that this is not an academic debate but about how long a democracy can tolerate a large part of a political camp drifting so far from reality. The complete survey and analysis can be found here: https://manhattan.institute/article/the-new-gop-survey-analysis-of-americans-overall-todays-republican-coalition-and-the-minorities-of-maga?