War, markets, power - why Trump’s Hormuz plan is triggering new accusations - further executions in Iran

Donald Trump announces that the United States will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering not only a military response but also new accusations that go far beyond it. Shortly after his statement that “neutral and innocent” ships would be safely guided through the blocked passage, a question emerges that is no longer being asked quietly in Washington. Is this policymaking or market moving. Trump himself justifies the move by saying that countries from around the world had asked for help. The Strait of Hormuz, through which around one fifth of global energy trade passes, has been blocked since the end of February. Since the beginning of the war, Iranian forces have repeatedly attacked commercial vessels or threatened further attacks. Shipping companies wait, insurers withdraw, supply chains begin to stall.

Against this backdrop, Trump announces a project he calls Project Freedom. Ships and their crews are to be escorted out of the blocked zone, the operation is to begin immediately. He speaks of a mission that will create security and allow trade to resume. At the same time, behind this announcement there is a second layer that is immediately felt in financial markets. Oil prices react sensitively to every movement in the region. Even small signals can trigger massive swings. This is exactly where the accusations begin. Critics see more than foreign policy in Trump’s communication. They accuse him of deliberately shaping expectations through public announcements that have direct effects on prices and markets.

The question is asked openly. Is this still political communication or already influence over economic developments. Trump’s words come at a moment when global energy prices are under pressure and every change in the Persian Gulf has immediate consequences. At the same time, the military situation remains unclear. No one says exactly what this escort mission will look like. Which forces will be used, how ships will be protected and whether there will be direct confrontations all remain open. On the Iranian side, it has already been made clear that any foreign military presence will be seen as a provocation.

Iran states that it stopped a US warship on Monday at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz and forced it to turn back. The navy speaks of a fast and decisive warning against so called American Zionist units. At the same time, the Fars news agency spreads the claim that two missiles hit a US ship. From Washington comes immediate contradiction. A senior US official rejects the report and denies any hit. The conflicting accounts come at a moment when the United States is announcing its own operation to escort stranded ships and Iran is intensifying its threats against any foreign military presence in the region. From sources on the ground, this incident cannot be confirmed.

This creates a situation in which political decisions, military risks and economic interests are inseparably linked. A sentence can move markets. An announcement can change prices. And every movement on the water can escalate the situation.

Two have made it through …

Two US flagged commercial vessels have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, while guided missile destroyers of the US Navy in the Persian Gulf are securing and attempting to restore traffic. The US military thus confirms for the first time concrete transits and again rejects Iranian claims that an American warship was hit. The passage took place through waters near Oman, where a so called security zone has been established. Details on timing and execution remain unclear, but it is evident that Washington has begun to turn its announcements into action.

Amid this military and diplomatic situation, there is another story that must not be lost. Narges Mohammadi, Iranian human rights lawyer and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, in her early fifties, was taken to a hospital in Zanjan in northwestern Iran on Friday after suffering a cardiac crisis and fainting. Her foundation and her family said on Saturday that her condition was at very high risk. The Iranian intelligence ministry is opposing her transfer to Tehran, where she could be treated by her own doctors.

Mohammadi was arrested on December 12. Before that she had served a sentence of 13 years and nine months, convicted of alleged conspiracy against state security and propaganda against the Iranian government. Since late 2024 she had been on medical leave due to health concerns. Her family attributes her current condition in part to mistreatment during her arrest in December.

Medical teams in Zanjan have requested her records before treating her. They recommend a transfer to Tehran for an angiography. That is exactly what the intelligence ministry is blocking. Her husband Taghi Rahmani, who lives in Paris, said in a voice message provided to the Associated Press through the foundation that the ministry would not object if Mohammadi died. In an interview with Sky News he added that she has the psychological resilience for imprisonment, but her body does not. Her children have not seen her since 2015. The Norwegian Nobel Committee called on Iranian authorities to immediately transfer her to her medical team. Her life is in their hands. Her legal team is appealing to the prosecutor general.

While Mohammadi is in the hospital, Iran carries out five more executions on Saturday. Yaghoub Karimpour and Nasser Bekrzadeh were hanged. Both had been convicted of spying for Israel. Karimpour is said, according to the judiciary portal Mizanonline, to have passed “sensitive information” to a Mossad officer. Bekrzadeh is accused of transmitting details about government and religious leaders as well as information about Natanz, the city where the enrichment facility is located that was bombed last year by Israel and the United States. In recent weeks, Iran has executed more than a dozen people for alleged espionage and terrorist activities. Human rights organizations have long pointed out that these proceedings take place behind closed doors and that defendants have no chance to defend themselves.

Mohammad Reza Miri, Mehdi Rasouli and Mehrab Abdollahzadeh were convicted of alleged crimes against the state, the alleged killing of a security officer in the case of Mehrab Abdollahzadeh, unrest and resistance, and were also hanged. Three more names, three more verdicts that no one can verify. In a country where law no longer plays a role and has been replaced by raw brutality.

And yet there is also movement in another direction. Pakistan said on Monday that it had facilitated the transfer of 22 crew members from an Iranian ship seized by the United States. The Pakistani foreign ministry described the move as a confidence building measure. The men, who had been on the Iranian container ship MV Touska, were evacuated and flown overnight to Pakistan. They are to be handed over to Iranian authorities. The ship itself is to be brought into Pakistani waters, receive the necessary repairs there and then be returned to its original owners. The entire process is being coordinated with the support of Iran and the United States.

In the end, what emerges is a development that goes far beyond the Strait of Hormuz. It is not only about ships and security, but about the question of who actually holds control in this conflict. Over what happens at sea and over how markets react.