Trump: “I think we have won” - At the same time he sends 2,500 Marines - Switzerland blocks new weapons sales to the U.S.

Donald Trump writes on social media that the United States is considering winding down the war against Iran. They are very close to their objectives. Shortly before, he had told journalists on the White House lawn that he does not want a ceasefire because they are literally wiping out the other side right now. Both on the same day. Both official. Both without any explanation of how that fits together.

It does not fit together. That is the point.

Three weeks of war. Over 2,300 dead, most of them in Iran. At least 1,394 Iranian civilians according to the human rights organization Human Rights Activists News Agency. Over 1,000 dead in Lebanon. 13 fallen American soldiers. 14 dead in Israel from Iranian attacks. Oil at 112 dollars per barrel, 54 percent higher than at the start of the war. The S&P 500 falling for the fourth week in a row. Damage recorded at 37 energy facilities in nine countries, including refineries, gas fields and ports.

And Trump says it will be over soon. “I think we have won” He has said it several times. Each time after that, the attacks intensified.

The Strait of Hormuz is the real battlefield of this war, militarily as well as economically. Iran has almost completely blocked it with mines, missiles and drones. Before the war, more than 130 ships passed through the strait every day. Now it is an average of three to four. Around 3,000 ships, including about 250 oil tankers, and 23,000 seafarers are stuck in the region, according to the International Maritime Organization. More than 20 commercial vessels have been hit in and around the strait.

The United States is trying to open the passage militarily. General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says Iran’s missile capability has dropped by 90 percent since the start of the war. He adds that Iran still has residual capabilities. F-15E fighter bombers have used 5,000 pound bombs to destroy bunkers where cruise missiles and equipment were stored. A-10 Warthog aircraft are hunting Iranian fast boats. Iran hides some of these boats in civilian ports, which makes every attack on them a risk for civilians.

At the same time, Iran lets friendly countries through. China, India, Pakistan, Malaysia and Iraq are allowed to send their ships through a route along Iranian territorial waters, past the island of Larak, where the Revolutionary Guards and port authorities keep the ships in sight. In at least one case, payment was made for this. Iranian lawmakers are already discussing fixed transit fees. The new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had stated in his first declaration that the leverage of the Hormuz blockade must continue to be used.

Trump has quietly changed his original war objectives.

Trump listed five points. Numbered. Clean.

At the beginning there was regime change. Not as a rumor - as an official statement of this administration. Along with that, the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear fuel. Those were the goals. That was the justification for over 2,300 deaths. Both no longer appear in this posting.

Not failed. Simply gone. Replaced by formulations vague enough to be declared fulfilled at some point. This is not a strategy shift. This is the quiet rewriting of what people died for. Hormuz is now supposed to be secured by others. Europe. Asia. Countries that did not want this war and did not control it. Trump calls it an easy military operation. For them. Not for him.

Anyone who shifts goals without admitting it, and passes on the costs without explaining it, has not won. He has only decided that the outcome no longer interests him.

At the beginning, the administration spoke of regime change in Tehran and the complete elimination of Iran’s nuclear fuel reserves. Neither appears in his Friday posting anymore. Instead, he talks about weakening Iran’s military, protecting American allies and a vague formulation that they want to be able to respond to a possible revival of Iran’s nuclear program.

The reasons for this course correction are visible. Gasoline in the United States costs around four dollars per gallon. Republican lawmakers are becoming nervous about the economic consequences. The Pentagon has requested an additional 200 billion dollars, almost a quarter of the entire annual budget of the Department of Defense. To this day, Congress has not received a single page with details. Rosa DeLauro, Democrat from Connecticut and longtime member of the Appropriations Committee, said at a hearing to Ambassador Mike Waltz: We are getting no information. No numbers. No explanation of what the money is needed for. See also: No access, no answers, no press conference - and a war that drives no one into the streets

The Treasury Department has temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil that is already on ships. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates that this could bring about 140 million barrels of crude oil onto the market. The license applies to oil loaded by March 20 and runs until April 19. Bessent says Iran will hardly benefit economically because access to the revenues will remain blocked. Energy analysts doubt whether the measure will have any effect at all. Most of the Iranian oil has already been sold and tied up, says Daniel Tannebaum, former Treasury official. What international bank would finance Iran oil trade, legal or not. Brett Erickson of Obsidian Risk Advisors calls the administration’s steps a sign of desperation. It is hard to see how the United States could still put pressure on Iran this way.

At the same time, Washington is sending 2,500 additional Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit from Camp Pendleton overseas. They will arrive next month in the region on three warships of the USS Boxer Amphibious Ready Group. Trump said on Thursday that he is not planning ground troops, only to add: If I were, I certainly would not announce it.

The United Kingdom gave the green light on Friday for American forces to use British bases to strike Iranian positions that threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Until now, the use of British bases was only allowed for attacks on Iranian missile launchers that directly threatened British bases and allies. Prime Minister Keir Starmer nevertheless insists that British forces will not directly participate in the war. Trump said in response that the United Kingdom should have acted much faster. Starmer is no Winston Churchill.

Iran responded. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the use of British bases is participation in aggression. Germany withdrew its soldiers from Baghdad, who had been stationed there as part of a NATO mission. Around 200 soldiers remain in northern Iraq and in Jordan.

Switzerland is blocking new weapons sales to the United States, based on its neutrality law. The United States is the second largest buyer of Swiss defense goods after Germany, most recently with a volume of around 94 million francs per year. Switzerland had previously already rejected two American requests for overflights of reconnaissance aircraft.

Marco Rubio has bypassed Congress for the second time within two weeks to approve weapons sales worth more than 23 billion dollars to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan. He declared an emergency situation for this, which is permitted under the Arms Export Control Act but is rarely used. Senator Bernie Sanders announced that he will introduce resolutions to block the sales. Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat from New Hampshire, called the administration’s move proof of its lack of planning.

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, issued a written statement for Nowruz and the end of Ramadan. He did not appear on video. Since his appointment just under two weeks ago, after the death of his father Ali Khamenei in an Israeli American attack, he has not appeared in public. The Pentagon assumes that he was seriously wounded in the attacks. In his statement, he denied that Iran or forces allied with it were responsible for attacks on Turkey and Oman. He did not mention the far more numerous attacks on other Gulf states. He promised to address the country’s economic situation and said he often drives a taxi incognito to hear people’s concerns directly. He declared the motto of the new Iranian year: resistance economy in the shadow of national unity and national security.

Missiles crossed the sky over the West Bank and Tel Aviv as Iran launched a new wave of attacks on the region

In Jerusalem, part of an intercepted Iranian missile struck near the Old City, less than 500 meters from the Al Aqsa Mosque and the Western Wall. There were no injuries.

Trump says the war is almost over.

The Marines are coming next month. The attacks continue. Oil prices rise. Congress is waiting for numbers that do not come. And the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant part of the world’s energy supply flows, remains closed for most ships.

Who is actually deciding here when something is over, or won?