Trump’s Miscalculations - No Withdrawal, No Plan, Intelligence Report Ignored

Tehran - The war has entered its second week, and nothing points to de escalation. President Donald Trump announced Saturday morning that Iran would be "hit very hard" and that additional "areas and groups of people" are now on the target list. Earlier, Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian had rejected the demand for unconditional surrender as "a dream our enemies will take with them to the grave."

Intelligence Report Ignored

A classified report by the National Intelligence Council is on the table. Its content is clear: Even a large scale US military attack on Iran would, with high probability, not topple the Islamic establishment there. The report was completed about a week before the start of the war on February 28 - before the first bombs fell. Donald Trump has announced that he intends to "sweep away" Iran’s leadership and install a successor of his choosing. The intelligence report considers exactly that to be unrealistic. The question of whether Trump was informed of this assessment before the military operation remains unanswered by the White House.

The National Intelligence Council consolidates the analyses of all 18 US intelligence agencies. What this body puts on paper is not a gut feeling - it is the condensed assessment of the entire American intelligence apparatus. And that apparatus says: The Iranian clergy and military have succession plans. They function even under pressure. The fragmented Iranian opposition would not be able to fill the emerging vacuum.

While Tehran struggles over the succession of the killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Trump writes on Truth Social of "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" and publicly declares Khamenei’s son Mojtaba "incompetent" and a "lightweight." He adds that he himself has suitable candidates for Iran’s leadership in mind. Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf responded laconically: Iran’s fate will be determined solely by the Iranian people - not by Epstein’s circle of acquaintances.

Donald Trump stated in a post that Iran had apologized to its neighboring Middle Eastern states and had effectively capitulated. He attributed this to the "relentless" attacks by the United States and Israel and claimed that Tehran had pledged not to fire any more missiles at the Gulf states. Trump no longer referred to Iran as the "bully of the Middle East" but as the "loser of the Middle East" and held out the prospect of further hard strikes. He also announced that new areas and groups of people would now be targeted that had not previously been subject to attacks.

While political messages were escalating, sirens once again wailed in Bahrain and Qatar. The United Arab Emirates reported in the evening that it was intercepting Iranian missiles and drones that had entered its territory.

Martial video staging - in the end, not much remains of a strategy that is increasingly revealing itself as miscalculation. US Central Command delivers headlines, history delivers bodies, and the intelligence services speak quietly what no one wants to say aloud: It does not work like this. It was probably always so. Whoever wages war with the camera and social media in mind and leaves the bill to others still bears responsibility - whether he wants to or not. Pete Hegseth, war minister and former Fox host would be the first consequence.

Tehran remains under fire. Israel attacked Mehrabad Airport during the night, according to military statements aircraft of the Revolutionary Guards were hit. Residents report massive fireballs over the capital. At the same time, the US military stated that it had struck at least 3,000 targets since the start of the war - a sharp increase compared to 2,000 at the beginning of the week. Washington provided few details about the specific targets. The number of dead in Iran remains unclear.

At the same time, Iran continues its counterattacks. The Revolutionary Guards reported a new wave of attacks on American and Israeli targets, including ballistic strikes on Haifa as well as drone attacks on the Dubai Marina, where, according to Iran’s account, US troops are located. In Bahrain, military depots at the port of Salman were said to have been attacked. Bahrain stated that it has intercepted 86 missiles and 148 drones since the start of the war. Saudi Arabia also reported several intercepted drones over the Shaybah oil field.

An Iranian drone struck the international airport of Dubai

Within Iran, tensions are emerging openly. Pezeshkian initially apologized to the Gulf states for the missile attacks and announced that they would be halted. Hours later, he qualified his statement and declared that Iran had only attacked US bases, not "friendly and neighboring countries." Parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf indirectly contradicted this and stated that as long as US bases exist in these states, there will be no peace. Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, head of the judiciary and member of the three person transitional council, spoke of further "heavy attacks." Ali Larijani, chairman of the National Security Council, was scheduled to deliver an address in the evening to demonstrate unity. Since the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there has been no elected successor, his son Mojtaba Khamenei is considered a possible candidate. Pezeshkian is part of a transitional body, but observers doubt that he controls the security apparatus.

The price is also rising in the United States. At least six American soldiers have fallen so far. Trump traveled to Dover to receive the coffins of the fallen. He stated that there will "probably be more" casualties. When asked about ground troops, he ruled nothing out. At the same time, economic costs are rising. The gasoline price in the US averages 3.41 dollars per gallon, an increase of 14 percent within a week. Crude oil is trading above 90 dollars per barrel. Tankers from the Persian Gulf are not arriving, about one fifth of the world’s oil supply is affected.

The conflict continues to spread. In Beirut, Israel again bombed the southern suburbs and the Bekaa Valley. In Nabi Sheet, according to Lebanese statements, clashes occurred after an Israeli commando operation, at least 26 people were killed. Around 300,000 people in Lebanon have been displaced according to the Norwegian Refugee Council. In Israel, special units searched in eastern Lebanon for the remains of the soldier Ron Arad, missing since the 1980s - without success.

Pakistan is also coming under pressure. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had still nominated Trump for a peace prize in October. Now thousands are protesting in Islamabad and Karachi against the US Israeli offensive. At least 26 people were killed in anti US and anti Israel demonstrations, eleven of them during an attempt to storm the US consulate in Karachi. Pakistan, a nuclear power with 565 miles of border with Iran, stands between the fronts. Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir met Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman. Both states have concluded a mutual defense agreement. At the same time, Islamabad warned Iran against miscalculations. Pakistan’s energy supply is on the verge of collapse, oil reserves will last less than two weeks.

Images released by Homeland Security with the note: US Marines have orders to kill any terrorist who attacks the embassy! The embassy is US territory and will be defended! March 1, 2026

Warning notice: Even in shortened form, the following footage shows highly sensitive and distressing images; persons with weak nerves or particular sensitivity should refrain from viewing.

The Houthi militia in Yemen is also signaling readiness to intervene. A political representative declared that the expansion of the conflict is only a matter of time. Israel in turn began a new wave of attacks against infrastructure in Tehran and Isfahan, more than 80 fighter jets were reportedly in operation according to the military.

Tehran, March 7, 22:00 local time - According to Iranian statements, an oil depot in Tehran was struck Saturday evening in a new wave of attacks, massive flames and plumes of smoke illuminated the night sky. It is one of the first times that a civilian industrial facility has been targeted; Israel did not comment on specific targets, while Iranian state media threatened attacks on refineries in Haifa. We are attempting to clarify further details

The violence continues to expand: In Baghdad, a rocket struck the helicopter landing pad of the US embassy without causing casualties. Iraq’s interim prime minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani spoke of a "terrorist act" by "renegade groups" and ordered investigations. In Tehran, a new wave of attacks struck an oil depot, massive flames lit up the sky - one of the first attacks on a civilian industrial facility. Israel confirmed further airstrikes on the capital. At the same time, Ali Larijani, a central power broker and chairman of the National Security Council, announced an address - a signal that Iran’s strategic line is to be recalibrated or at least presented as unified. Spain meanwhile evacuated its embassy in Tehran, Turkey warned of an ethnic escalation in connection with Kurdish groups. (As of 21:30 CET)

The war has long since engulfed the entire region: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the Gulf states, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia. Missiles, drones, airstrikes, ground operations, rising oil prices, and fallen soldiers mark an escalation with no discernible exit strategy. Europe also does not remain untouched. Rising oil prices directly hit an already fragile economy, supply chains are again under pressure, energy imports from the Gulf region are at stake. At the same time, the security risk is growing: US bases in Europe are potential targets of Iranian retaliation, NATO is indirectly drawn into a conflict it does not control. While Washington escalates and Tehran strikes back, the European Union so far appears like a spectator to a war whose economic and strategic consequences it must nevertheless bear. While President Trump announces further targets and Iran promises retaliation, even an internal US assessment confirms that the actual goal - a regime change - is hardly achievable militarily. The fronts are hardening. A compromise is not in sight. Trump has not only miscalculated, he has initiated an escalation for which there is no viable exit plan.