The Big Ugly Bill - How Trump's Tariffs Drain Billions from the States

Our research has shown that Donald Trump's tariff policy is not just an ideological project but a gigantic, invisible tax on the US economy. Since January 2025, companies in the United States have paid more than 56 billion dollars in tariffs - money that has not gone into innovation, not into new jobs, not into wages, but directly into the treasury. In California, payments alone in the first five months of the year totaled 11.3 billion dollars, in Texas six billion, in Michigan 3.3 billion. Dozens of other states report triple-digit million burdens, even structurally weak regions like West Virginia or Nebraska are bleeding in the double-digit million range.

These figures are not wild estimates but harsh reality: They are based on the State Tariff Tracker, which records the actually collected customs duties for each state, broken down by product groups and countries of origin. Every import is recorded, every payment booked. The tracker covers not only normal tariffs but also the special duties from Trump's notorious Section-301 measures against China and the steel and aluminum tariffs under Section 232. Whoever imports pays - even before the goods are sold. The economic impact is as simple as it is brutal. Tariffs are nothing but a consumption tax that is due at the port or the border. Companies pre-finance them, add them to prices, or cut elsewhere - investments, new hires, wages. The USITC has confirmed in several reports that almost the entire burden is passed on to American firms and consumers. Studies by leading economists such as Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein show that the first rounds of tariffs under Trump starting in 2018 destroyed billions in real purchasing power every month. In 2025, the government not only continued this course but intensified it.

The states that Trump rhetorically stages as the heart of his "Make-America-Great-Again" agenda are particularly affected: industrial regions in the Midwest, logistics hubs in the South, export-oriented states on the coast. They pay the highest bill - and are at the same time hit by retaliatory tariffs from other countries that make their own products more expensive. This creates a double stranglehold: more expensive inputs for industry and falling sales opportunities abroad. This invisible tax is noticeable in the balance sheets. Medium-sized companies complain about blocked liquidity because they have to pay their customs bills immediately while supply chains become more expensive due to detours. Larger companies postpone investment decisions or frantically look for suppliers in countries without punitive tariffs - often with higher purchase prices. In the end, consumers pay, even if they import nothing: through more expensive cars, household appliances, building materials, and food. Our own analysis clearly shows that Trump's tariff policy has brought no new industrial boom to the states but is draining their purchasing power. It is a gigantic redistribution - from the coffers of companies into the customs statistics of the Treasury Department. Anyone who seriously wants to talk about an industrial renaissance must first remove this barrier. As long as it stands, every month remains a tribute to an economic policy that pretends to save industry while slowly choking off its oxygen.