It was a brief moment of relief, hardly more than a breath in the history of economic rivalry: Just a few weeks ago, the United States and China announced in Geneva that they would lower tariffs, reduce trade barriers, calm the waters - a joint agreement set to last 90 days and create space for a new chapter in economic cooperation.
But now, in early June, little remains of that breakthrough. On the contrary: tensions between Washington and Beijing are once again escalating after the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump unexpectedly imposed new measures against China’s high-tech industry. At the center of the conflict are stricter export controls for AI chips, an effective halt on the sale of specialized chip design software - and a political provocation that goes far beyond technology: the planned revocation of visas for Chinese students in the United States.
China’s Ministry of Commerce responded unusually sharply on Monday. In an official statement, Beijing accused the U.S. of having broken the Geneva agreement and unilaterally provoked new economic friction. “These practices seriously violate the consensus,” the statement read. According to China, it had suspended tariffs and non-tariff measures in line with the agreement - but Washington, under Trump, had taken a different path. While the punitive tariff on Chinese goods was reduced from 145% to 30% - and China lowered its tariffs from 125% to 10% in return - behind these numbers lies no structural rapprochement, but a tactical pause. Tariffs remain well above pre-crisis levels, and the political tone is harsher than it has been in a long time.
“So much for Mr. NICE GUY,” Trump sneered Friday on Truth Social. China had “TOTALLY VIOLATED” the agreement, he said. The president declared he would no longer be nice - a threat that has increasingly become his standard political currency. Later, in the Oval Office, Trump announced he would speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which would “hopefully bring something,” though his message was unmistakable: China is to blame for the new freeze. At the same time, the Trump administration expanded the conflict into strategically sensitive areas. On Friday, it announced plans to step up the revocation of visas for Chinese students. More than 275,000 young people from China are currently studying at U.S. universities - an academic bridge that now appears to be shaking. Behind all this lies more than a trade conflict - it is a geopolitical power struggle over technology, influence, and systems. The United States wants to restrict China’s access to advanced chips and AI systems with the new export rules. These are not only considered the foundation of economic power, but also as levers of military and intelligence supremacy.
China, for its part, is openly striving to displace the U.S. as the technological leader - not least through investments in key industries and growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Taiwan, closely allied with the United States and home to the world’s leading chip manufacturer TSMC, is a strategic flashpoint in this game - economically, politically, militarily. For companies and investors, the political back-and-forth is an incalculable risk. While tariffs have been lowered for now - no one knows whether the fragile deal will survive the full 90 days. At a time when global supply chains are under pressure and trust in international agreements is fading, any further escalation could trigger domino effects - in stock markets, in production, in the relations between entire regions.
And while diplomats speak once again of “violations” and “countermeasures,” real people are being swept up in the current of this confrontation - students, traders, factory workers in both countries. They are the ones paying the price for a politics of confrontation that has long since moved beyond substantive policy and become a symbolic battle.
A symbolic battle that shows: the path back to reason is possible - but it will be a hard one.
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