Jolfa – Two weeks pause. That is what was agreed last night. Two weeks in which no American bombs are to fall on Iran, in which the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian military administration is to be passable again, in which delegations in Islamabad will negotiate about what comes next.
While Beirut burned.
Israel struck on Wednesday afternoon during rush hour simultaneously in five districts of the Lebanese capital. 50 fighter jets, 160 munitions, 100 targets, all in ten minutes. Black smoke over Corniche al-Mazraa, one of the busiest intersections of the city, access to the city center, to the airport, to the coast. Burned out cars, concrete, twisted metal, bodies in parked vehicles. Rescue teams were still searching for survivors two hours later. Israel said it had struck Hezbollah targets. Hezbollah, Israel said, was trying to move its operations deeper into civilian areas.
Pakistan had stated during the ceasefire mediation that the agreement also included Lebanon. Israel says that is not true. Hezbollah says it is waiting to see whether mediators can secure a ceasefire for Lebanon. In the meantime, it will not adhere to it because Israel is not doing so either.
That is the state of this ceasefire. Each side has its own version of it.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stood before the press at the Pentagon on Wednesday and declared the war a victory – at his side General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, presented figures: over 13,000 targets hit, 80 percent of Iran’s air defense systems destroyed, 90 percent of the weapons factories attacked, more than 90 percent of the regular Iranian navy sunk – 150 ships on the seabed. Caine added the operation had consumed more than six million meals, 950,000 gallons of coffee, two million energy drinks and a lot of nicotine.
Pete Hegseth sharply confronts an ABC News reporter, while General Dan Caine remains calm and respectful.
Dan Caine: “I honestly have trouble recognizing what exactly your question was – that is probably on me, not on you.”
Pete Hegseth: “Mr Chairman, excuse me, that was more of an accusation dressed up as a question. You are therefore excused.”
Journalist: “May I phrase it differently, sir?”
Pete Hegseth: “No! You had your chance!”
Journalist: “Is the Strait of Hormuz currently open?”
Dan Caine: “I believe so, based on the diplomatic negotiations.”
Hegseth said they control Iran’s airspace. Two American fighter jets were shot down last week. Hegseth said Iran got lucky once in 40 days. He said the military had done its part, for now. They stand ready to strike again if Iran does not adhere to the ceasefire.

Trump wrote on social media the United States would work with Iran to dig up and remove the highly enriched uranium that had been buried under joint American Israeli strikes last summer. Iran had agreed to no longer enrich uranium. Iran has not confirmed that. Iran has not said it will cooperate in the recovery of the uranium. Trump had called Iran’s 10 point plan a reasonable basis for negotiations on Tuesday evening. On Wednesday he indicated that nearly all points of his own 15 point plan had been accepted by Iran. Iran has not confirmed that either.
Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the loudest supporters of the war, said the ceasefire proposal had troubling aspects. All highly enriched uranium must be removed from Iran as part of a peace agreement and handed over to the United States. He called for thorough congressional scrutiny of the deal.
The Gulf states were not invited to the negotiations in Islamabad, although they have been under daily Iranian fire since the beginning of the war. A diplomat from the region said anonymously that the Arab countries feared Iran could emerge strengthened from this war. The lifting of sanctions, revenue from transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz – both part of Iran’s 10 point plan. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait emphasized on Wednesday that passage through the Strait of Hormuz must be possible without restrictions.
That same morning, Saudi Arabia intercepted nine drones. Kuwait was attacked by 28 Iranian drones despite the ceasefire, three power and seawater
Maersk, the Danish shipping company, said it is working to gain clarity on the possibilities for commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire could create opportunities for passage, but does not yet provide full security at sea. Any decision to transit will be based on continuous risk assessments.
The World Health Organization warned that health systems in the region are operating under extreme strain. In Iran, more than 33,000 people have been injured since the start of the war, and more than 2,300 have been killed. In Lebanon, more than one in five residents has been displaced.
Two French hostages, Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, left Iran on Tuesday overland via Azerbaijan and flew to Paris. Kohler, 41, and Paris, 72, had been detained for more than three years in Tehran’s Evin Prison, where many dissidents are held. Kohler thanked those who made their release from the hell of Evin possible. Paris said they were not broken. They would bear witness and live life again.
Syria reopened its airspace. Oil prices fell to around 94 dollars per barrel, still well above the pre war level of 72 dollars. The S&P 500 rose by 2.7 percent. The Dow Jones climbed by 1,350 points.
In Tehran, people say they have lived under sanctions for so long and that so little has come of it. This, they say, is a valuable opportunity. They believe they are in a strong position.
The UN special envoy Jean Arnault arrived in Iran to speak with Iranian government officials. Pope Leo XIV called the ceasefire a sign of genuine hope and invited people to a prayer for peace on Saturday in St. Peter’s Basilica.

Trump also wrote that any nation supplying Iran with weapons would immediately face tariffs of 50 percent on all goods exported to the United States. There would be no exceptions. He did not explain how he intends to enforce this.
Two weeks. Beirut continues to burn. And no one knows exactly what is being negotiated in Islamabad, because both sides have different versions of what has already been agreed.

Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit condemned the Israeli attacks on Lebanon and accused Israel of deliberately undermining the ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
The attacks were barbaric, violated international law, and showed that Israel continues to play an obstructive role in any rapprochement that could contribute to stabilizing the region. Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun also called the simultaneous attacks on Beirut and other parts of the country during rush hour barbaric and spoke of a new massacre. Israel bears full responsibility. Entire buildings were destroyed in residential areas, streets covered with dust and debris. Hours after the attacks, rescue workers were still searching for survivors, hospitals called for blood donations.
Trump said in a brief interview that the talks in Islamabad would take place very soon. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would be involved. The talks in Islamabad are expected to begin on Friday. We will report from there. Vance may not be there for security reasons. He was in Budapest on Wednesday, where he supported Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ahead of the elections. No comment needed.
This is the ceasefire.
Update 6:30 p.m. CET
Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon - just hours after the ceasefire. We had also assumed that even if it were reopened, it could take months for oil flows to return to normal, as many shipping companies would remain extremely cautious in light of possible renewed escalation. The political situation can change within hours - which has now proven to be the case.
Update 6:55 p.m. CET
Washington denies the closure, Iranian state television confirms the closure.
Reporter: Iranian state media is saying that Iran is now closed off the strait of hormuz today in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
Leavitt: I will reiterate the president's expectation and demand that the strait of hormuz is reopened immediately, quickly and safely.. It has been relayed to him privately that that is what's taking place and these reports publicly are false.
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Es war doch zu erwarten, daß dieser Waffenstillstand nicht das ist, was man als solchen kennt und erwarten dürfte
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