More Expensive Than Ever – We Analyzed Trump’s Vietnam Deal: What Lies Behind It Mainly Hurts Consumers

Donald Trump calls it a new "beautiful" trade agreement – but anyone who takes a closer look at the deal with Vietnam announced on Wednesday will see: this agreement is neither finalized nor beneficial, but rather an expensive step backward for the American economy. We analyzed the deal – and what lies behind it is a mix of deception, economic incompetence, and ideological protectionism that will ultimately come at a high cost to ordinary American men and women.

The deal in detail: Since April 2025, the U.S. government has been imposing a punitive tariff of 10 percent on nearly all imports from Vietnam. For a short time, a rate of 46 percent was even in effect – a shock measure that Trump temporarily paused to allow for negotiations. Now the result: starting July 9, the minimum tariff on Vietnamese goods is to increase to 20 percent – double the previous rate. Trump calls it a success. But there is no signed agreement, no bilateral trade structure, no ratification. Vietnam's state-run news agency refers to it merely as a "framework." That means the deal is not only vague – it is essentially non-existent. The economic consequences are measurable – and significant. Today, Vietnam is the sixth most important import partner of the United States, with a rapidly growing volume. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, in 2024 the country exported $136 billion worth of goods to the United States – mainly electronics, clothing, shoes, and furniture. These products are part of the basic needs of American households – in the case of shoes and textiles, around 30 percent of U.S. imports already come from Vietnam. The new minimum tariff of 20 percent would mean a price increase of several billion dollars per year – costs that businesses can hardly absorb and will therefore pass on to consumers.

Trump claims that the tariffs are paid by foreign exporters. But experts disagree. In the end, it is Americans who pay, explains Clark Packard from the Cato Institute. The idea that you can make imports massively more expensive and no one in the country will feel it is simply false. Caleb Petitt from the Independent Institute also warns: many U.S. companies rely on Vietnamese components and finished goods – a sudden cost spike would burden not just customers but entire supply chains. The reality is: instead of reshoring industries as Trump promises, these tariffs entrench global dependency – just under worse conditions. Reshoring production to America takes years, massive investments, and reliable planning. Instead, the Trump administration mainly creates uncertainty, short-term market distortions, and political pressure. Companies are stockpiling inventory, shifting costs, cutting quality – and grappling with a market that is becoming more unstable by the day. The so-called agreement with Vietnam is nothing more than a tariff maneuver without economic substance. A domestic political theater with foreign policy risk. While Trump presents himself as a dealmaker, millions of Americans are left paying the bill – at the checkout, in their household budgets, with their next pair of sneakers. Anyone who sees this deal as a success is confusing headlines with strategy. And anyone who thinks this is the price of American strength has yet to understand what real economic self-harm looks like.