Power Vacuum in Tehran - Insiders Report Plans to Oust Ayatollah Khamenei Following US-Israel Strikes

Jerusalem / Tehran – June 23, 2025 - Following the massive airstrikes by the United States and Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities, signs are mounting of an escalating power struggle within the Islamic Republic. Several high-ranking sources from Tehran report that influential circles within the political, religious, and economic establishment are openly discussing the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader – a scenario that until recently seemed unthinkable. politischen, religiösen und wirtschaftlichen Establishment offen über die Ablösung von Ayatollah Ali Khamenei als Oberstem Führer sprechen – ein Szenario, das bis vor Kurzem noch undenkbar schien.

"Our chances of displacing Khamenei have increased - but we’re treading on thin ice," said one insider. "The situation is fragile, there is fear - and the dynamic could shift at any moment." According to reports, it is not just dissidents but also parts of the regime itself preparing for a transition: a network of businessmen, military officials, bureaucrats, and senior clerics – some from Khamenei’s immediate circle, with even family members said to be involved. "This is just one of many plans," another participant said. "There are numerous ideas circulating in Tehran about the country’s future. There are also talks with European actors. Everyone knows that Khamenei no longer has real control - even if he officially remains in office."

While, formally, only the Assembly of Experts – the powerful body that appoints and can remove the Supreme Leader – may decide on Khamenei’s ouster, many believe a vote is currently unfeasible. The situation after the airstrikes is too unstable, public pressure is growing, and the risk of internal uprisings is high. In recent days, a dramatic shift in Khamenei’s leadership style has already become apparent. According to several government sources, he has shut down all electronic communications and now contacts military leaders only through a small circle of absolutely trusted couriers – apparently out of fear of targeted killings or digital surveillance. Several officials describe the 86-year-old as deeply unsettled – particularly due to the extent of Israeli infiltration into Iran’s security structures that preceded the strikes. Internally, Khamenei is said to have already named three senior clerics as possible successors – a move many interpret as a clear sign of an impending transition of power.

In the ongoing talks about succession, the name of Hassan Rouhani comes up regularly. The former president, who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal with the West, is seen by many as a moderate transitional figure. Some power centers are reportedly already exploring whether Rouhani could play a role in a future leadership structure – although, according to current findings, he is not actively involved in any coup plans. The internal factions remain divided. While some actors favor a diplomatic reset with the United States – specifically with President Donald Trump – others are calling for a military response. At the same time, some circles are deliberately leaking information about Khamenei’s health and withdrawal from public life to Western media – a calculated move to create domestic pressure or prepare international deals.

What is currently unfolding in Tehran goes far beyond an internal change of leadership. It is the visible collapse of an authoritarian order that has been held together for over three decades by a single man. Khamenei was the ideological, spiritual, and military center of the Islamic Republic – now that order is falling apart in real time. At the center of considerations about a post-Khamenei era are now specific names – and they reflect the deep fissures within Iran’s power apparatus. At the same time, there are growing indications that Mojtaba Khamenei, the power-conscious son of the Supreme Leader, is pulling strings behind the scenes – but his closeness to his father’s repressive policies makes him a risky figure for many actors.

Another name circulating internally is Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, a member of the influential Assembly of Experts. As a former head of the judiciary, he enjoys institutional backing, but corruption allegations within his family have damaged his reputation. More interesting is the quiet return of the reformist camp to the conversation: Religious figures such as Sayyid Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the revolution’s founder, are also gaining renewed significance amid the power struggles. His closeness to young protesters and his reputation as a moderate cleric could make him a symbolic unifying figure – provided the hardliners don’t sideline him in time.

Decisive, however, will be the position of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). From IRGC-aligned circles, we have learned that the focus is on "stability without visible fractures" – which is interpreted as a signal that they may also support the removal of the Supreme Leader, as long as the regime’s core structures remain intact. At the same time, informal contacts with the outside world appear to be intensifying. European mediators, particularly from France and Norway, are said to be in talks with Iranian diplomats. The Sultanate of Oman is once again being mentioned as a discreet communication channel between Tehran and Washington. And while parts of the regime are hoping for new negotiations with US President Donald Trump, others are already preparing for the next level of escalation. What is currently taking place behind the scenes is not an orderly transition – it is a race between a desire for order and the collapse of the system. And none of the players knows where it will ultimately lead.

How this emerging power vacuum will be filled – through reform, repression, or revolution – is likely to determine not only Iran’s political future but also fundamentally reshape the strategic balance in the entire Middle East. A new chapter in Iran’s history has begun – and its outcome remains entirely uncertain.