“No Tariff Below 15 Percent” – Trump’s Power Play with Europe

The setting could hardly have been more symbolic. As seagulls circled over the windswept Scottish coastal town of Turnberry, Donald Trump personally steered a golf cart across the lawn of his namesake luxury estate – a place where power, property, and political symbolism merge in a display of almost ostentatious grandeur. But this weekend was about more than sport or self-staging: it was about a trade agreement with the European Union that could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy. At Trump’s side: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who had agreed to hold the talks on Trump’s private property – a diplomatic constellation that is itself cause for debate. The US president’s message was clear from the outset: no tariffs below 15 percent. A firm red line that Trump emphasized repeatedly on Sunday. “I think both sides want fairness,” he said before the negotiations began. At the same time, he left no doubt that he was ready to tighten the screws further: “If there’s no deal, there will be tariffs.” Von der Leyen and Trump put the chances of an agreement at a sober “50:50.” It was a high-stakes conversation, because if both sides fail, punitive tariffs of up to 30 percent threaten – with a corresponding response from Europe. The EU has already announced it will target American products such as beef, auto parts, beer, and Boeing aircraft. The threat is on the table. And Trump seems to relish it.

“This is bigger than any other deal,” he declared confidently – and hinted that he could imagine a deal being reached in a short amount of time, if Europe was willing to make concessions. The fact that his benchmark is a new agreement with Japan that sets tariffs at 15 percent underscores the new minimum threshold he wants to enforce globally. When asked whether he would be satisfied with less, Trump responded unequivocally: “No.” For Trump, it’s about more than trade. It’s about the narrative of the tough but “fair” negotiator, which he promotes like a mantra. Von der Leyen described him as “known for his toughness” – Trump himself added, “but fair.” This self-image seems central to the president, especially in an election year shaped by economic data and foreign policy strength. The fact that he includes his own family in the staging – Eric and Donald Jr. joined him on the golf course – fits the picture. The setting of Turnberry thus becomes a symbol of a new kind of diplomacy: personal, polarizing, saturated with private business interests. The actual negotiating partners on the EU side – Maros Sefcovic, Sabine Weyand, Björn Seibert, Tomas Baert – encountered a president who dreams less of multilateral rules and more of bilateral deals. The fact that Trump lumps the EU together with former trade adversaries like China or Mexico shows how little he cares about traditional alliances.

Meanwhile, some demonstrators gathered outside the golf course, waving American flags and holding up signs – not against Trump, but against British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is also scheduled to meet the US president in Turnberry on Monday. The scene was split: between chants of “Trump! Trump!” and critical banners, a visit unfolded that said much about the world order in 2025 – and how far the United States under Trump has distanced itself from previous principles. The clock is ticking. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made it clear in an interview with Fox News on Sunday that there is no more leeway: “No extensions, no more grace periods. On August 1, the tariffs go into effect.” While Trump is always open to talks – “he always listens” – the ball is now in Europe’s court. The only question, he said, is “whether they make him a good enough offer.” A retreat seems out of the question. Trump’s strategy is clear: build pressure, set deadlines, threaten escalation – and then, perhaps, announce a deal he can sell as a triumph. The return to bilateral power politics leaves little room for long-term partnerships. What remains is an economic limbo between Europe and the US – and an international trade order increasingly at the mercy of Trump’s whims. On Tuesday, he continues on to Aberdeen, where Trump and his sons will inaugurate a new golf course. Even there, it’s likely to be about more than sport. Because if Turnberry is the new Camp David, then golf becomes the stage for a world where deals matter more than diplomacy – and tariffs more than trust.

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