Iran knows it cannot win this war

byRainer Hofmann

June 22, 2025

It was a massive yet limited strike - a show of force with calculated restraint. No political targets, no command centers, no air defense systems were hit. According to official Pentagon statements, Fordow was heavily damaged but not completely destroyed, suffering “severe damage” while remaining intact and showing no total annihilation - contrary to Trump’s claim of a “total direct hit.” Satellite images confirm impacts and damage but no full collapse. Trump and Netanyahu coordinated the attacks - but Israeli jets remained grounded. The message: this was not all. But it could have been all, if Iran does not respond. In Jerusalem, Prime Minister Netanyahu triumphantly declared the “fulfillment of his historic mission” - the prevention of an Iranian bomb. Analysts see him strengthened by U.S. support like never before since 2023. Even opposition leader Yair Lapid spoke of a “victory for Israel, Trump, and the free world.”

But not everyone is cheering. Democratic members of Congress and moderate Republicans criticize Trump’s unilateral move as unconstitutional. A war without Congressional approval? A preemptive strike that undermines international law? Doubts are growing. Internationally, opposition is also mounting. Russia condemned the strike as a “violation of international law” and announced a meeting between Putin and the Iranian foreign minister. Pope Leo XIV wrote: “War heals nothing. It only adds new wounds.” In Seoul, Tokyo, Manila, and Washington, thousands protested against the escalation - with signs, chants, and tears.

And yet: the greatest irony lies in the strategic outcome. Because as much as Trump tries to prevent Iran’s nuclear bomb - he now makes it more likely. “That is the real tragedy,” says Iran expert Ellie Geranmayeh. “Iran knows it cannot win this war - but it wants to ensure that the U.S. and Israel lose too.” There are already indications that Iran possesses a new, secret enrichment facility - under a mountain range south of Natanz, unreachable even for bunker busters. The IAEA has no access. If this facility becomes operational, analyst David Albright says, Iran could produce material for up to 19 bombs within three months.

Whether Iran escalates or deescalates - no one knows. Both are possible. It is also possible that Tehran sees the path to a nuclear counterstrike as the only remaining option. Ayatollah Khamenei, 86 years old, faces a decision much like Khomeini in 1988. Back then, they swallowed the “poison of peace.” Today, they could choose retaliation - or abandon the nuclear deal once and for all. An American preemptive war, an Israeli security pledge, a geopolitical tightrope act with global explosive potential - the world faces a dangerous morning. The hammer has dropped. The clock is ticking. And the price of this victory is far from paid.

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