Global Game of Chicken: Tariff Yourself Rich - 90 Trade Deals in 90 Days, Says Trump

It sounded like a promise from a bad TV commercial: "90 deals in 90 days." But what Donald Trump announced in April turned out three months later to be an empty threat filled with theater, little substance, and a global economy hitting the brakes. A grand total of two trade agreements have been concluded so far – with Vietnam and the United Kingdom. A framework deal with China was announced, but the details remain nebulous. In return, the world got threatening letters, tariff warnings, backpedaling, and a frantic game of deadline chess leading up to the next negotiation round on August 1. Global trade? On hold. Investments? Postponed. Jobs? Frozen.

On April 2, Trump declared what he called "Liberation Day." With a flat 10 percent import tax and "reciprocal tariffs" of up to 50 percent on countries running trade deficits with the U.S., he aimed to usher in a new era. But just a few hours after taking effect, the White House walked it back: the tariffs were suspended for 90 days to allow time for negotiations. Now the deadline has passed, but the chaos remains. Japan, South Korea, and a dozen other countries received new letters from Washington in early July: either make a deal or face a 25 percent tariff starting August 1. And although Trump insists there will be no further extensions this time, many observers believe it’s just another chapter in a series of threats and political theater. The Financial Times has already coined an acronym for this pattern: TACO – "Trump Always Chickens Out."

In reality, the global economy is facing a structural problem. The multilateral trading system, secured for decades through complex agreements like the Uruguay Round and the Most Favored Nation principle, is being undermined by Trump’s selective tariff policy. Countries like Japan or the EU are expected to pay, while Vietnam accepted a flat 20 percent export tax to the U.S. - in exchange for tariff-free imports of American goods. A "deal" just the way Trump likes it: unbalanced, unilateral, U.S.-dominated. But economic powers like the EU or South Korea remain firm. They know that Trump himself comes under pressure if his strategy produces no results. And in fact, the president seems to be hedging: according to the Department of Commerce, the U.S. government has implemented hardly any new tariff measures despite repeated announcements. The impact on stock markets was still noticeable. Trump’s April tariffs triggered a global sell-off that lasted four days. Analysts are warning of growing recession risks. Meanwhile, the share prices of tech giants like Nvidia, Amazon, or Meta rose again - not because of Trump’s policies, but due to strong quarterly numbers and hopes of steady consumer sentiment. Trump, in the meantime, announced new punitive tariffs: 200 percent on pharmaceuticals, 50 percent on copper. These threats also remain suspended for now. Behind the scenes, the reality is more complex. Many governments need visible domestic wins when making concessions. South Korea, for example, wants something in return on steel and aluminum tariffs. Without a quid pro quo, they fear, any deal looks like surrender. That, however, is Trump’s real leverage: he knows smaller countries like Vietnam are more willing to bend to avoid worse outcomes. But large economies play a different game: the global game of chicken is in full swing. Some hope Trump will blink. Others bet he no longer wants to risk a new escalation. One thing is certain: the 90 days are over. And Trump’s tariff roulette has left the global economy with more questions than answers.