Fire over the Gulf - A region in free fall

Sirens wail over Tel Aviv, interceptor missiles cut through the sky. Images show projectiles being intercepted after the US Israeli strike on Iran. At the same time, reports from Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Tabriz and from the western provinces are intensifying. Smoke rises over the capital. Explosions are also reported in port cities along the Persian Gulf, including Asaluyeh, a nerve center of Iran’s oil trade.

According to Iranian state media, a US Israeli strike in Minab in Hormozgan province hit a girls’ school. Initial reports spoke of five students killed, later the state news agency IRNA reported at least forty dead and forty five injured. The city is home to a base of the Revolutionary Guards. Neither Washington nor Jerusalem has so far provided details about the operation. A person familiar with the planning said the mission had been prepared for months and closely coordinated and was expected to last several days. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards speak of the first phase of retaliation under the name “True Promise 4.” Targets included the command of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, US bases in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates as well as military targets in Israel. Damage has so far been scarcely confirmed, one fatality is reported from the Emirates. Missile and drone attacks continued, further information would follow, it was said.

Qatar said it had intercepted a second and later a third wave of Iranian missiles. Kuwait also reported repelling a “heinous Iranian attack” and emphasized its right to self defense. Kuwait Airways temporarily suspended flights. The airline Emirates said several connections were affected due to airspace closures in the United Arab Emirates. The company, based at Dubai Airport, the largest international hub, carried 53.7 million passengers in the past fiscal year and said it was working with authorities on adjustments. Passengers are advised to check their flight status online.

In northern Tehran, people crowd into supermarkets, buying bread and water. Eggs, milk and bottled water are sold out in some places. Long lines form at gas stations. On the Soleimani Highway, outbound traffic stands bumper to bumper. Saudi Arabia sharply condemned Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan and warned of serious consequences from continued violations of state sovereignty. Pakistan reported a phone call between Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi; Dar spoke of “unjustified attacks” and called for an immediate return to diplomacy. Russia described the strikes as a “pre planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state,” demanded an end to the military campaign and accused Washington and Tel Aviv of pursuing regime change under the pretext of the nuclear program. Moscow warned of a humanitarian, economic and possibly radiological catastrophe and declared the bombing of facilities under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency unacceptable.

Voices of caution are also coming from Europe. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa are calling for maximum restraint, the protection of civilians and full respect for international law. At the same time, they point to extensive sanctions against the Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards. Brussels is working with member states to support European citizens in the Middle East.

Mirjana Spoljaric, president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, speaks of a dangerous chain reaction with devastating consequences for civilians. Schools, residential buildings and hospitals must be spared, medical personnel must be able to work safely. The rules of international humanitarian law and the Geneva Conventions apply without restriction. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, recipient of the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize, also condemned the attacks. Executive Director Melissa Parke called them irresponsible and warned of further escalation and growing risk of nuclear proliferation.

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog welcomed the joint operation with the United States and expressed hope for a historic shift and a better future for the Middle East. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei did not appear publicly in the days before the strike and was not seen afterward; during the twelve day war he is said to have been moved to a secure location outside his Tehran compound.

Security expert Phillips O’Brien of the University of St Andrews warns that massive airstrikes alone would not topple the Iranian system. Buildings can be destroyed, leaders weakened, but a lasting change of government requires support within Iran, from parts of the population and from actors within the state apparatus. Without ground troops, O’Brien says, it remains unclear whether and how a change of power could actually occur. Signs of eroding support for the leadership would include mutinies within military units or open criticism from within the regime.

The region thus stands on the brink of further expansion. Between intercepted missiles over Tel Aviv, overcrowded roads in Tehran and closed airspaces over the Gulf, these hours will determine whether diplomacy still has room - or whether the spiral continues to turn.