EU Instead of NATO – Moscow’s New Signal, Washington’s Pressure, and Zelenskyy’s Narrow Corridor

Russia has for the first time signaled in the ongoing talks that Ukraine joining the European Union could be acceptable to Moscow – as part of a possible peace settlement. This information comes from U.S. government sources and coincided with the end of another round of talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. envoys in Berlin. For Kyiv, this is a remarkable but highly ambivalent signal. It opens an option without actually resolving the central security conflict.

The talks in Berlin took place in quick succession. After a multi-hour session on Sunday, Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s chief negotiator Rustem Umerov, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and European representatives met again on Monday. The meeting lasted about ninety minutes. Umerov later spoke of “real progress.” Washington also said progress had been made. Concrete results, however, remained vague – a pattern that has characterized the negotiations for weeks. At the center remains the question of what concessions Ukraine should make and what security assurances it would receive in return. Zelenskyy has publicly stated that Kyiv would be ready to drop its application for NATO membership if the United States and other Western states grant Ukraine binding security guarantees comparable in effect to those enjoyed by NATO members. At the same time, he made clear that this would not be a choice, but a forced step. From Ukraine’s perspective, NATO remains the best safeguard against renewed Russian aggression. Yet this option currently lacks the full backing of all alliance partners.

his is precisely where the new Russian signal comes in. Moscow apparently does not view Ukraine’s EU membership as a security threat. Unlike NATO, the European Union is not seen by the Kremlin as a military alliance. For Russia, an EU accession by Kyiv would therefore be acceptable as long as Ukraine remains outside military structures. For Ukraine, this means economic integration yes, military protection no. At the same time, Washington is increasing the pressure. The U.S. government is pushing for rapid acceptance of a U.S.-brokered peace framework. Trump wants results. Patience in Washington is wearing thin. And this is exactly where the conflict lies. While the U.S. is accelerating the process, Moscow is growing more assertive and articulating its demands more clearly.

The dispute over eastern Ukraine remains unchanged at the core of the talks. Large parts of the Donetsk region are under Russian control. President Vladimir Putin is demanding that Ukraine also withdraw from those areas it still holds. This is unacceptable for Kyiv. Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that territorial concessions beyond the current front line are off the table. A peace built on the loss of additional territory would not be politically or socially viable.

From Berlin came a sober assessment. A spokesperson for Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the security question would ultimately determine whether the war truly ends or is merely frozen. Merz had already warned that Europe must not rely on permanent protection from the United States. Russia, he said, aims to change the European order, not merely to control Ukraine.

Signals of support also came from Paris. President Emmanuel Macron announced he would travel to Berlin to accompany the talks. Zelenskyy had previously emphasized how important close coordination with France and other European partners is. Europe is trying to present a united front – also to prevent decisions being made over Ukraine’s head. The Kremlin reacted in its usual wait-and-see manner. It expects to be briefed by the U.S. side, Moscow said. Asked whether an agreement could be reached by Christmas, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov waved it off. Predicting timelines is a thankless task. President Putin is open to a serious peace, he said, but not to maneuvers aimed at buying time. At the same time, Putin once again denied any intention to attack NATO states.

While options are discussed on the diplomatic level, the war continues unabated. Overnight, Ukraine reported massive Russian attacks with missiles and drones. Russia, in turn, reported Ukrainian drone strikes on its territory. The reality at the front stands in stark contrast to the language of the negotiators. The Russian signal on Ukraine’s EU membership is therefore not a breakthrough, but a tactical move. It shifts the focus away from military security toward economic integration. For Moscow, this is calculable. For Ukraine, it is risky. Zelenskyy is navigating a narrow corridor between Western pressure, Russian demands, and his own red line: no further loss of land and no security guarantees that exist only on paper.

While options are discussed on the diplomatic level, the war continues unabated. Overnight, Ukraine reported massive Russian attacks with missiles and drones. Russia, in turn, reported Ukrainian drone strikes on its territory. The reality at the front stands in stark contrast to the language of the negotiators. The Russian signal on Ukraine’s EU membership is therefore not a breakthrough, but a tactical move. It shifts the focus away from military security toward economic integration. For Moscow, this is calculable. For Ukraine, it is risky. Zelenskyy is navigating a narrow corridor between Western pressure, Russian demands, and his own red line: no further loss of land and no security guarantees that exist only on paper.