A Treaty with Reservations

byRainer Hofmann

May 1, 2025

America’s Resource Pact with Ukraine

On April 30, 2025, the United States and Ukraine signed a new economic agreement. The official message: hope, reconstruction, partnership. But behind the headlines lies a reality that is more complex, more fragile, more contradictory.

A new fund is being established - the United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Six people, three from each country, are set to manage over the next ten years what could move billions: investments in Ukraine’s resource sector, which is becoming increasingly vital to the global economy. Lithium, titanium, graphite, oil, gas - the treasure chest of Ukraine is meant to become the driving force of its own rebirth.

But what does it mean to negotiate hope in a war zone? While the ink on the agreement dries, Russian rockets strike Odessa. It is an agreement on shaky ground, burdened with heavy expectations.

The U.S. secures preferred access to investments in Ukrainian companies extracting critical resources. Profits are to be shared - equally, they say. But history knows many agreements whose balance existed only on paper. What stands out is what’s missing: security guarantees. No article protects Ukraine from further attacks. No promise, no troops, no protection clauses. Just capital, expected to flow for as long as it’s profitable.

President Trump initially wanted 50% of all Ukrainian resource revenues to go directly to the U.S. - as “repayment” for past aid. Zelenskyy refused. Aid, he said, is not a debt. What remains is a symbolic agreement, driven more by political calculation than by humanitarian responsibility. The negotiations were tense, marked by threats and retreats. Only after revisions to meet EU legal standards did they find words suitable for signature.

And now? Experts call it a milestone. Perhaps it is. But it lies in a minefield.

Because how can one invest long-term when fighter jets circle above every extraction site? How can a fair trade in resources be built when the very ground it’s drawn from remains under siege?

Perhaps this agreement is a beginning. Perhaps a distraction. Perhaps another chapter in the long history of politically instrumentalized economic hardship.

What is certain: the U.S. is consolidating its access to critical resources - and Ukraine is left with a promise that holds little value without peace.

The agreement is more than paper. It is an image of our time: fragile, interwoven with interests, surrounded by hope—but not protected.

A treaty signed under missile fire. A fund built on brittle ground. A symbol - and at the same time, its own caricature.

This is what global solidarity looks like in 2025.

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