One President, One Tariff - and the End of Reason

It was a Saturday morning straight out of the textbook of American unpredictability. Without prior notice, without final talks, without regard for the fragile order of global trade, Donald Trump released a letter – and with it, the next escalation of his economic policy. Thirty percent tariffs on all imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. A blow that not only shatters negotiations but also buries trust in the United States as a reliable partner under the rubble. Just a few days ago, negotiators on both sides of the Atlantic had hoped a compromise was within reach. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had spoken with Trump several times, Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič was in constant contact with Washington. The idea: a basic agreement, a framework to build upon. It was clear that Trump wanted tariffs – but expectations were for 10 percent, not an all-out trade war. But Trump wanted more. More pressure, more dominance, more control. And so he wrote in his letter to the EU: "If you respond with retaliatory tariffs, then your percentage will simply be added to our 30 percent." It was no invitation to dialogue but a threat – delivered in the language of a man who has turned trade into a discipline of subjugation.

Now the EU must ask itself whether to strike back. The answer has long been prepared in the drawers of the Commission: a retaliation package worth 21 billion euros – almost 25 billion dollars – on U.S. products, which had so far not been activated only because diplomacy was the chosen path. But that window now seems closed. If Brussels does not respond by midnight Tuesday, the European countermeasures will take effect automatically. In Brussels, the mood is tense. "Of course we could react, but we don’t want to," said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas on Friday in Kuala Lumpur. But this restraint is based on reciprocity – and that is exactly what Trump has now revoked. Particularly affected: the German automotive industry, French luxury goods, Italian wines, Irish pharmaceuticals. They all now stand as pawns on a geopolitical chessboard that Trump plays with the attitude of a casino owner. Profits are cashed in, losses externalized – onto allies, consumers, entire economies.

The historical significance of these relationships can hardly be overstated. The EU and the U.S. are more than just trading partners – they are economically intertwined like few other regions in the world. What is breaking here is not just a contract. It is the idea that cooperation is possible, that rules apply, and that power does not stand above law. Economist Jacob Funk Kirkegaard from the Bruegel think tank in Brussels puts it bluntly: "If these tariffs remain, that means trade war." And this war affects not just companies. It affects people – in factories, on farms, in distribution centers. People who have done nothing more than go about their work. Trump is calculating with escalation. But Europe has learned that giving in is not a strategy. The time for offers of compromise seems over. What remains is resistance. And the hope that the world will someday remember that trade also requires trust – not just tariff codes.

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