A Peace Plan Without Takers - Why Moscow Is Likely to Reject the New U.S.-Ukrainian Proposal

When Volodymyr Zelensky presented the new 20-point peace plan on Tuesday, it was immediately clear that this was not simply an addendum, but a deliberate break with a draft that in the fall had looked very much like a capitulation. At that time, Ukraine would have been forced to cede territory and permanently rule out NATO membership. The newly presented plan is different. It was developed jointly with the United States, includes security guarantees intended to prevent future Russian aggression, and outlines the reconstruction of a devastated country. Zelensky presented it as a serious compromise to the proposal unveiled in November by Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev together with Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff. Yet it is precisely this claim that makes the plan barely acceptable from Moscow’s point of view.

In the Kremlin, the new paper is read not as a balance, but as a provocation. Russian analysis channels were quick to describe it as a farce. A Moscow-based foreign policy expert wrote, in essence, that the aim was transparent: to sell the draft in Washington as reasonable and then blame Russia for its failure. This reading fits the mood of a leadership that sees itself militarily in the ascendancy and has little political room to present a compromise as a victory. Vladimir Putin has barely changed his demands over the past two years. Ukraine is to withdraw its forces from the remaining parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and NATO membership is to be permanently ruled out. He reaffirmed this line just days ago at his annual press conference. While he spoke of possible concessions, which observers believe could involve giving up parts of the occupied territories in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, he simultaneously made clear that Russia was prepared to continue fighting in order to gain full control of the Donetsk region.

The new Ukrainian-American plan collides with Russian expectations precisely at this point. It calls for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Kharkiv. For parts of the Donetsk region, it envisions a demilitarized zone, but only on the condition that Russia withdraws from an equivalent stretch of land. The draft also remains firm on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Moscow occupies the facility, while Kyiv is pushing for an international solution with U.S. involvement. For Russian commentators, this is a dealbreaker. Without movement on territory and the power plant, the plan is not negotiable, they say.

That Russia can afford to reject the proposal is due not only to political rhetoric, but also to sober calculations. The war has placed a heavy burden on the Russian economy. Interest rates are at record highs, and growth is sliding toward stagnation. Nevertheless, analysts see no imminent collapse that would force the Kremlin to change course. Despite Western sanctions, Moscow remains capable of action. According to Russian figures, more than 400,000 men signed new contracts for military service in 2025 alone, numbers that align with estimates by independent researchers. This steady influx of soldiers allows the leadership to absorb heavy losses and continue the war. Militarily, Russia now controls roughly three quarters of the Donetsk region. If the advance continues at its current pace, the remaining Ukrainian-held areas there could fall within about a year and a half. This prospect strengthens those forces within the power apparatus who see no reason to concede now.

At the same time, Moscow has an interest in continuing to negotiate at all. Talks with Washington keep relations with the current U.S. administration functional and prevent Russia from appearing solely as the obstructionist party. They also buy time. New sanctions or additional economic restrictions can thus be delayed. Measures imposed in October by President Trump against the oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil have already forced Russia to sell its oil at significantly steeper discounts. Every postponement counts. Finally, the drawn-out negotiations serve another purpose: they deepen tensions between Ukraine and its Western partners. As details are debated in various capitals, frictions emerge that Moscow watches closely. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said on Wednesday that Putin had been briefed on the new plan and that Russia was now formulating its position. The American side, he added, had long been aware of the basic parameters of this stance.

In Kyiv, the situation is understood clearly. Ukrainian observers do not believe the Kremlin is seriously interested in ending the war. As long as Russia continues to advance militarily and feels no domestic pressure, the incentive to make even small concessions remains low. From this perspective, the debate over Trump’s peace plan is primarily a tactical exercise. Moscow keeps the dialogue open in order to appear willing to engage in Washington, while simultaneously betting on widening the differences between the United States and Ukraine. The new plan thus stands between all fronts. For Kyiv, it is an attempt to secure safety and reconstruction without being forced into surrender once again. For Washington, it is a tool to inject movement into stalled talks. For the Kremlin, however, it is currently above all one thing: an offer that gives too little and demands too much. As long as that assessment does not change, Moscow is likely to reject it and the war will go on.