The New Hardness - Merz, the "Little-Trump" Principle and the Dismantling of the Minimum

The government calls it reform, but in truth it is a change of system. With the abolition of citizen’s income and the introduction of a so-called new basic security, a chapter begins that does not speak of modernization but of a return to severity. Behind technocratic terms like performance incentive and responsibility ethics lies a program that does not alleviate poverty but normalizes it. Friedrich Merz, the chancellor of the new order, calls it an “honest new start.” Critics are already speaking of a rollback to the 1990s.

Since taking office in the spring, Merz has led a coalition that sees itself as pragmatic but is ideologically deeply rooted. While the SPD maintains the social façade, the CDU dictates the budgetary line. Although Carsten Linnemann holds no government post, he is considered within the Union as one of the key architects of the new basic security logic - a line that Chancellor Merz and Finance Minister Klingbeil represent in different tones: social spending must fall, work incentives must rise (Bundestag debate 18.09.2025). A formula that, when translated into numbers, means less money for those who already have the least.

The standard rate for single adults has been 563 euros since January 2025 (Federal Law Gazette 2024 I No. 267). Even this figure, sober as it may seem, is a political statement: it keeps people afloat but never above the surface. The new basic security will further tighten this logic. The waiting period that previously granted one year of grace, during which actual rents were recognized and savings were not touched (SGB II § 12 para. 3), is to be eliminated. From now on, only what is deemed “reasonable” will count - a word defined in administrative tables, not in life.

In Berlin, the upper limit for a single-person rent is 449 euros (Housing Cost Guideline Berlin 2025, Senate Department for Integration, Labor and Social Affairs), in Frankfurt 786 euros (Jobcenter Frankfurt a. M., Housing Cost Table July 2025), and in Munich 890 euros (Department of Social Affairs, City of Munich, Housing Cost Guideline 2025). On paper, that sounds like social care; in reality, it borders on cynicism. A one-room apartment now costs between 700 and 900 euros in Berlin (Immowelt Market Report Q3 2025, Immoscout Q3 2025), between 900 and 1,200 euros in Munich, and between 800 and 1,100 euros in Frankfurt (ibid.). So anyone living “appropriately” either doesn’t live at all or pays the difference. Someone in Berlin renting a small apartment for 800 euros has to contribute 351 euros from their basic benefit (own calculation based on the housing cost cap and the standard benefit rate, BMAS).

After paying for electricity, averaging 63 euros per month (Federal Association of Energy and Water Industries, 2025), phone and internet at about 40 euros (Bitkom Consumer Report 2025), and the Deutschlandticket, which has cost 58 euros since January 1, 2025 and is set to rise to 63 euros next year (Federal Government decision of September 13, 2025), a single person in Berlin is left with a realistic 90 to 110 euros per month for food, medication, clothing, hygiene products, repairs, and everything else — a calculation that no ministry denies, yet none make public.

The Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs under Bärbel Bas (SPD) speaks of individual responsibility and realistic expectations (Federal Press Conference, September 17, 2025). In the job centers, this simply means: pay, calculate, go without. The announced reduction of protected savings from the current 40,000 euros to 15,000 euros per person (BMAS Draft, Working Group on Basic Security, September 23, 2025) will continue this course. What was once a safety net is becoming a sieve. Even a small cushion, built over years through work, thrift, or hope, can now be counted against benefits. And anyone who refuses to comply with every measure risks losing not only money but their entitlement to state support altogether — this is the spirit of the new line: toughness as method, fear as motivator.

In his ARD summer interview on July 7, 2025, Merz described the reform as a “question of performance-based justice,” but in truth, it is the cold order of an era that believes poverty is a pedagogical problem. The concept stems from the workfare logic established in the United States in the 1990s (Clinton Welfare Reform 1996). Donald Trump turned this thinking into a political weapon - Merz has studied it and translated it into German administrative vocabulary. Both share the credo that the state should not be solidaristic but punitive if it wants to prove efficiency.

The consequences are already visible. In major cities, the number of people who can keep their homes but can no longer afford to heat them is growing (Caritas Germany Annual Report 2025). Social associations speak of a “silent hunger” in the lower middle class (German Parity Welfare Association September 2025). The Federal Employment Agency warns internally of rising default rates for rent, health insurance, and energy providers (BA report “Social Situation Q2 2025”). The budget cuts that relieve the budget in the short term will lead to higher costs in the long run - just in other ministries. Poverty is expensive when you manage it instead of preventing it.

But beyond the numbers, it is the tone that reveals where the country is heading. The government’s language is that of management, not of a welfare state. People become cost factors, dependency becomes misconduct, care becomes misallocation. The SPD pushes back, but only rhetorically. It speaks of social correction, but the course is already set. Merz has won the discourse - not through majority, but through repetition.

So what remains of this new system that sounds like a technical reform but is in truth a moral regression? A country where the subsistence minimum becomes negotiable again. A budget that does not save but shifts - from basic security to the emergency room, from rent to debt counseling, from people to statistics.

You can talk about numbers, efficiency, and the budget. But in the end, only one question remains, which needs no political color to be valid:

What are people supposed to live on when even the minimum is no longer enough?

For 2024, the customs authority reported that it had initiated around 85,700 investigations related to the misuse of social benefits – including basic income support and unemployment benefits (ALG II). Based on roughly five million recipients, this is interpreted as a misuse rate of about 4%.

Many of these cases fizzle out or are dropped because no intent or actual fraud can be proven (for example, delayed reporting, incorrect forms, or duplicate filings). In recent years, the share of cases in which fraud was actually confirmed has usually been below 2%.

Merz says it’s about discipline (ZDF Summer Interview, July 6, 2025). On September 18, 2025, during the budget debate in the Bundestag, several speakers referred to Linnemann’s phrase “the substance of the system” (Die Zeit, June 8, 2025). Bas says it’s about balance (Federal Press Conference, September 17, 2025). But none of that answers the question. Because (model calculation) 563 minus 351 minus 63 minus 58 does not make a political program, but a silent indictment. And it carries a truth that no government likes to hear: whoever rationalizes poverty eventually loses the morality to fight it.