The Second Day After the Strike - Leadership Vacuum in Tehran, Missiles on Synagogues, the Region in a State of Emergency

Tehran signals operational continuity as impacts continue. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Sunday in a recorded address on state television that a new leadership council “has begun its work” - after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by US and Israeli strikes. Pezeshkian himself is part of the three member body, alongside Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejehei and Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that a new Supreme Leader would be appointed “in a day or two.” As those words were broadcast, a massive explosion shook the capital, and the Israeli military said it was striking targets in central Tehran.

Iran responded by expanding its attacks. Missiles and drones hit Israel as well as several Gulf states. In Beit Shemesh in central Israel, a rocket struck a synagogue. Nine people were killed according to police, 45 were injured, and eleven are missing. Rescue teams were still searching the rubble as residents stood beside burned out vehicles and collapsed roofs. In Kuwait, the Defense Ministry reported 97 ballistic missiles and 283 drones; one person was killed, and 20 others were injured in a later wave of attacks. The United Arab Emirates reported three dead - nationals of Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh - and 58 injured. A total of 165 missiles and 541 drones were fired at the country, most intercepted, some projectiles hit civilian targets. Saudi Arabia also condemned Iranian strikes on Riyadh and the Eastern Province. A second ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz near Mina Saqr after another vessel had already been attacked in the area. Maersk announced it would suspend traffic through Bab al Mandab and the Suez Canal and reroute ships around the Cape of Good Hope. OPEC Plus plans to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in April to calm markets. Brent had already closed at 72.87 dollars before the weekend.

The US military confirmed three soldiers killed and five seriously wounded in operations against Iran. At the same time, Central Command said Iranian missiles had not come “anywhere near” the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. An Iranian Jamaran class corvette in the port of Chabahar had been struck and was sinking. Senator Tom Cotton spoke of a weeks long air campaign and called Iran’s “vast missile arsenal” the primary target. Ted Cruz described the strike as “the most important decision” of Donald Trump’s presidency and said he had urged Trump in advance to carry it out. Senator Chris Murphy warned that the outcome would be “not democracy, but an even harder leadership.” Mark Warner spoke of great uncertainty about the next steps. Chris Coons called the course a risky gamble that could produce a more repressive leadership in Tehran.

The CIA had, as subsequent reporting revealed, tracked the movements of senior Iranian officials for months and shared intelligence with Israel. The timing of the strikes was also determined on that basis. International legal scholars point to the gravity of the action. Luca Trenta of Swansea University recalled that since 1975 the U.S. government has been bound by executive order to a prohibition on political assassinations. Marko Milanovic of the University of Reading said that the targeted killing of a head of state in peacetime constitutes a clear violation of international law; in wartime, a political leader could be considered a legitimate target only if he were a member of the armed forces and thus a combatant.

Inside Iran, the images are contradictory. In Yazd and Isfahan, thousands of regime supporters gathered, chanting “Death to America” and mourning Khamenei. State media reported that the death toll in a strike on a school had risen to 165. At the same time, a doctor from Rasht said anonymously that he and colleagues celebrated the news of Khamenei’s death overnight, while security forces stopped vehicles and checked people. Reza Mehrabi in Tehran said jubilation over the deaths of senior officials was premature; he remembers the euphoria of 1979 and what followed.

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the shah overthrown in 1979, said on US television that he is leading a transition and has support “from millions of Iranians.” In Berlin and Vienna, Iranian exiles celebrated Khamenei’s death, while in Paris demonstrators called for regime change. A counter protest warned against war. France postponed an international Lebanon conference. Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged diplomacy in a phone call with Mohammed bin Salman. Russia and China condemned the strikes as a gross violation of international law and announced consultations in the Security Council. Italy said Iran’s hard line on the nuclear and missile issue also contributed to the escalation. The International Energy Agency said it is monitoring the situation closely and is in contact with major producers.

In Jerusalem, sirens are wailing; in the western part of the city many remain near shelters, while in the east Palestinians shop for the evening meal. Israel closed the crossings into Gaza; residents report panic buying out of fear of renewed shortages. US embassies in the region urged staff and citizens to seek shelter. Washington issued a worldwide security alert.

A new leadership council in Tehran, missiles over the region, soldiers killed, ships burning, conferences postponed - within hours the conflict has reached a dimension that goes far beyond the killing of a single man. The question of power in Iran is open. Military means are in play. And each side declares it is acting out of necessity.