The Abyss After the Fall - Why Trump’s Venezuela Course Could Push a Country Into Uncertainty

Washington has long since decided where things are headed. Donald Trump describes Nicolás Maduro as an outlaw, as an enemy of the United States, and he has moved warships, aircraft and special units so close to the Venezuelan coast that no one can doubt what this message means. But behind this martial posture lies a finding that receives astonishingly little attention in the White House: US authorities already simulated in great detail during Trump’s first term how a fall of Maduro would unfold. And their forecast is anything but what the hawks around the president want to hear.

USS Gerald R. Ford - USS Mahan - USS Bainbridge - USS Winston S. Churchill - USS Lake Erie - USS Gettysburg - USS Stockdale - USS Gravely - USS Iwo Jima - USS Fort Lauderdale - USS San Antonio - USS Wichita as well as, to our knowledge, 2 submarines

The American war games were not hastily assembled scenarios but multi-day exercises with experts from the Pentagon, the State Department and the intelligence community. Douglas Farah, one of the participants, revealed as early as 2019 what the sessions showed: Every conceivable path - an uprising, a military coup or direct US intervention - would tear apart Venezuela’s already fragile system. The state structures, already weakened by corruption and violence, would collapse within days. There would be no reliable command structure in the army, no functioning police and no institution capable of securing even the minimum of order. The country, Farah said, would fall into a phase in which looting, power struggles and armed groups set the tempo.

The fact that these warnings are anything but exaggerated becomes clear when looking across the border. On the Colombian side, thousands of ELN fighters operate - well armed, battle-tested and ready to support Maduro militarily. They have explosive devices, drones and a network that extends deep into the border regions. Added to this are regime-loyal militias inside the country that have been built up, armed and ideologically hardened for years. No one knows whom they would fight in the event of a power vacuum - but one thing is certain: they would not submit to a new government without resistance.

Trump’s camp likes to point to historical examples, but they offer little comfort. The 1989 invasion of Panama, in which American forces captured Manuel Noriega, is sometimes cited as a model. But Panama is tiny compared to Venezuela, and even there protests erupted one after another after the operation. The installed president, Endara, could barely stay in office, his approval plunged, and Washington turned away when things became inconvenient. A similar scenario played out in Haiti in 1994 - only with the difference that stabilizing the country required 25,000 soldiers. Transferred to Venezuela, the required troop strength would be enormous.

Despite all these warnings, the president is pushing ahead with his course. Since September, the United States has launched 21 air and sea strikes against boats off the Venezuelan coast, killing at least 83 people whom the White House claims were involved in drug trafficking. Trump publicly warns Maduro that he will do everything to stop the "drug war" and does not rule out a ground invasion. He signals willingness to talk but at the same time keeps every escalation option open. The ambiguity of his statements is not incidental - it is the strategy.

Maduro strengthened his powers with a new decree that gives him extensive security authority in the event of a US intervention

At the same time, the not undisputed María Corina Machado stands ready as an opposition leader who is internationally respected and backed by a clear majority. Her victory in the 2024 election was overturned by Maduro’s power apparatus, yet her mandate remains firmly rooted in the country. Machado promises an orderly transition, a rebuilding of institutions and accountability for the crimes of the regime. But even the first step would be a tremendous undertaking. A significant part of the state apparatus has been consciously built around personal loyalty to Maduro over two decades. Many military officers fear retribution if they support a transitional government. Some security forces could immediately go underground - or openly fight a new leadership.

The risk of a civil war is not theoretical but real. The Crisis Group, one of the most respected conflict research organizations worldwide, expects a long-lasting, smoldering conflict in which neighborhoods, provinces and border regions could be controlled by different armed actors. A country twice the size of California would be impossible to stabilize without massive international presence. And even if Maduro were forced to step down, it would not be clear where he could go. He is under investigation by the International Criminal Court; fleeing to a friendly country does not guarantee safety. Somoza in Nicaragua believed in 1979 that he was safe in Paraguay - a year later he lay dead in Asunción, killed by bullets and a rocket launcher. This example hovers in Maduro’s inner circle. Trump and his advisers nevertheless assume that increasing pressure will drive the dictator out. But the war games show the opposite: A few bombings, a few special forces - that is not enough to replace a state system. When power collapses, a space emerges in which violence, revenge and armed groups dominate. Hundreds of thousands could flee again, and South America would face another migration wave, potentially larger than anything the region has seen before.

What remains is a bitter contradiction. The United States sees itself as a stabilizing force - but its own analysis shows that a hasty removal of Maduro could plunge an entire country into years of instability. The United States violates international law in the Venezuela matter with a clarity that leaves no room for doubt. The UN Charter prohibits any threat of force, any military interference and especially the planning of a government overthrow. But Washington is doing exactly that: warships off the coast, targeted strikes, elaborated scenarios for a power shift. Venezuela’s sovereignty is treated as if it can be redesigned at will. With this, the US government knowingly breaks the central rules of the international order - and does not even attempt to hide it. But one thing is clear: Anyone who intervenes in such a country without knowing what comes the next morning is lighting the fuse on a powder keg and hoping it does not explode. And that hope has failed in many places in the world. Venezuela could be the next chapter.