The Compulsion Toward Peace – Trump’s Ultimatum, Putin’s Defiance, and the Spiral of Drones

The war in Ukraine has entered a state that can no longer be described as either a ceasefire or an escalation – but rather both at once. While Russian rockets and drones rain down on Ukrainian cities, while children bleed in public squares and windows shatter in Moscow’s outer districts, a president in Washington issues a countdown. Donald Trump, the man once seen as a Putin sympathizer, has set an ultimatum: 50 days, then new sanctions are to follow – harsh, sweeping, global. And Russia? Unimpressed. The goals, the Kremlin says, are clear. And non-negotiable. It is Dmitry Peskov, the old mouthpiece of Putin’s system, who uses the weekend to go on air. Once again. His words seem rehearsed, but the message is unmistakable. Russia is open to peace, he says, yes, President Putin explicitly wants a resolution to the conflict. But only on Russian terms. The main thing, Peskov says verbatim, is “to achieve our goals.” What those are is well known: Ukraine’s withdrawal from the four annexed regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia – the renunciation of NATO membership, the disarmament of the Ukrainian army. Demands that have been rejected since 2022. Demands that amount to a phased capitulation. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made a new offer to negotiate. Direct talks are to resume as early as next week, he said in his evening address. Russia confirmed the request – but gave no date. Istanbul, according to state-controlled media, would likely remain the host of the talks. The same city where, in recent months, more hostages have been exchanged than progress achieved.

The Russian attacks, meanwhile, continue unabated – and with an intensity that reminds observers of the worst phases of 2024. On the night leading into Sunday alone, Russia fired 57 drones, including many of the Iranian Shahed type, at Ukrainian territory, according to Ukraine’s military. At least 18 of them were shot down, others disappeared from radar. But many reached their targets. In the Zaporizhzhia region, a drone struck a residential house, injuring two women. In Kharkiv, another projectile hit an apartment building. In Sumy, a seven-year-old boy and his mother were wounded when a drone strike devastated a green park in the middle of the city. More than a hundred households were without power following the attack. One is tempted to say: the usual. But none of it is normal. Russia also reported attacks. That night, 93 Ukrainian drones were launched at Russian territory, at least 15 of them heading toward Moscow, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Ten drones were reportedly destroyed on approach to the capital, said Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. One of them hit a residential building in the suburb of Zelenograd. There were no injuries, but the message was clear: no place is safe. Not anymore.

And it is in precisely this moment of continued vulnerability that Trump’s ultimatum strikes. On July 14, the President of the United States announced that Russia must agree to a ceasefire within 50 days – otherwise, there would be “draconian tariffs.” What exactly that means, he left open. But his words sounded like more than symbolic politics. The sanctions, Trump said, could also target third-party countries that continue to trade with Russia. That means China, that means India, that means countries that have so far evaded the Western isolation strategy. At the same time, Trump announced a new arms program. Europe is to purchase “billions and billions” in US military goods, which would then flow directly to Ukraine. Leading the package are Patriot air defense systems – a vital component in defending against the increasing waves of drones. In Kyiv, this shift is met with cautious optimism. Recently, the Pentagon had suspended arms shipments, officially due to its own inventory shortages. Trump’s new rhetoric now sounds like a reversal – or like a final warning to Moscow. And yet his position is far from free of contradictions. For months, Trump’s stance on Ukraine had been the subject of speculation. At times it sounded like retreat, then like conditions, most recently like impatience. Now, it is his sharpest tone yet. And the very man who campaigned in 2016 on the promise of better relations with Russia now stands as the one threatening new sanctions. The dynamics of this story recognize no loyalties. Whether Russia will be impressed remains unclear. Nothing so far suggests that Putin will yield. His own population is still being rallied with calls to endure. Western arms deliveries are portrayed as evidence of a global conspiracy against Russia. And every Ukrainian proposal for negotiations is dismissed with references to “unacceptable conditions.” Peace, it seems, is not being made – it is being postponed. But the clock is ticking. And this time, it is not a tactical maneuver. It is an ultimatum. Fifty days. And after that: one more step toward confrontation. The only question is whether what still seems possible now can even be called peace at that point.

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