New York - The intervention of the United States in the war between Israel and Iran - through targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities - left surprisingly subdued traces on global financial markets on Monday. While politicians issue warnings, analysts calculate, and diplomats make phone calls, much remains in limbo on Wall Street. For now, at least. The market response so far has been moderate - a balancing act between geopolitical gravity and economic wishful thinking. The S&P 500 index, arguably the world’s most important stock benchmark, was down only 0.1 percent on Monday morning. The Dow Jones lost 37 points, also around 0.1 percent. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined by just 0.4 percent. No panic, then - but also no all-clear. The uncertainty over how Iran will respond to the U.S. military’s bunker-busting strikes is paralyzing investors as much as it is putting them on high alert.
The oil market is under especially close watch - that global nerve center whose twitching can affect entire economies. Shortly after trading began on Sunday evening, oil prices initially shot up 4 percent - a reflex to the news of the U.S. strikes on the Iranian nuclear sites at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. But the excitement quickly faded: prices gave back most of their gains once it became clear that Iran had not yet retaliated in a way that would threaten oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz - the bottleneck of the global energy market. By Monday morning, the price for a barrel of U.S. crude (West Texas Intermediate) stood at $74.16 - a slight increase of 0.4 percent. The international benchmark Brent was at $77.17 per barrel - a rise of 0.2 percent. Both prices remain well above where they stood just over a week ago, when the conflict escalated and U.S. crude was trading around $68 per barrel.
The quiet calculus of the markets is clear: if Iran responds to the airstrikes with attacks on tankers, pipelines, or production infrastructure, prices could explode - with devastating consequences for the global economy. But if Tehran shows restraint, the economic damage might remain limited. It is a nervous wait - a tightrope act above geopolitical fire. President Donald Trump views the development with concern - not out of respect for global balance, but due to rising gas prices at home. In an angry Truth Social post, he called on oil producers to increase output immediately. "DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!" Trump wrote in all caps. And further: "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!" It’s an explosive mix: geopolitical escalation, economic pressure, domestic populism. The financial markets are hoping for stability - and speculating on discipline. But with every new missile, with every fresh threat, the fragile balance could shift. Today may have passed quietly on the markets.
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