Washington – It is a warning signal that cannot be ignored, even amid the constant noise of political messaging: Donald Trump's approval ratings are in free fall – not only in traditionally Democratic states but also in 15 states he won in the 2024 election. Among them are all the so-called "swing states," those that often determine victory or defeat. In key states such as Michigan (-11), Nevada (-12), North Carolina (-8), Wisconsin (-13), Arizona (-12), Pennsylvania (-12), and Georgia (-6), Trump’s net favorability is now clearly in the negative. These values indicate the gap between approval and disapproval – a negative number means more people disapprove of Trump than support him, a positive number indicates the opposite. Even in traditionally conservative states like Texas (-8), Ohio (-6), and Utah (-5), support is crumbling. Missouri (-2), Indiana (-3), Florida (-3), Kansas (-4), and Iowa (-4) are also showing declines – a significant warning sign for a president who confidently dominated the Electoral College in 2024.
The numbers are even more dramatic in Democratic-leaning states: In California (-31), New York (-24), Massachusetts (-36), Maryland (-36), Washington (-28), and the capital Washington, D.C. (-73), Trump is facing record levels of disapproval. Even in smaller states like Vermont (-29) and Rhode Island (-36), the president appears to be losing all support. Only in Republican strongholds like Arkansas (+25), South Carolina (+16), Alabama (+12), Alaska (+10), and Kentucky (+9) does Trump continue to post solid figures. But the number in Alaska is particularly striking – around 36 percent of the population reportedly supports the idea of the state becoming independent. This does not necessarily conflict with supporting Trump: many independence advocates in Alaska are conservative-libertarian – they reject "big government" from Washington but still want a president who "leaves them alone," cuts taxes, and protects gun rights. Trump fulfills exactly that role for many. That’s why some can simultaneously support more autonomy or even independence – and still back him out of pragmatic conviction.
The causes of the downturn are manifold – and politically self-inflicted in recent history. The harsh “Liberation Day” tariffs triggered an economic policy storm. The mistaken deportation of U.S. citizen Kilmar Ábrego García to El Salvador fueled additional outrage. And a wave of ICE raids in Democratic-run cities led to nationwide protests under the slogan “No Kings.” According to Newsweek’s polling tracker, Trump’s current net approval stands at -4 points (47 percent approval, 51 percent disapproval), down from -2 points at the beginning of the month. Other surveys confirm the trend: The Economist tracker shows a drop from -7 to -12 points since early June. A YouGov/Economist poll from June 13 to 16 places Trump at 41 percent approval (-2) and 54 percent disapproval (+2). Morning Consult (46 percent approval, 52 percent disapproval), J.L. Partners (steady at 46 percent, but disapproval +11 to 51 percent), and Reuters/Ipsos (42 percent approval, 54 percent disapproval) all report declining numbers. Only a few polls show slight gains for Trump – including Echelon Insights and Fox News with a 2-point increase in approval. But these movements are largely within the margin of error. The bottom line: Trump is losing support – especially where he once considered it secure in 2024.
English 
German 
