First came the retreat, then the backlash: When Donald Trump announced a pause last week on the controversial ICE raids targeting farms, hotels, and restaurants, many business owners breathed a brief sigh of relief. But just a few days later came the reversal. The Department of Homeland Security declared that there would be "no safe spaces for industries that harbor criminals." The result: new raids, renewed uncertainty, fresh disruptions. Workers stay home or disappear altogether. In California, Texas, New Mexico, and Washington, employers report thinned-out shifts, disrupted supply chains, and growing fear. Some speak of siege, others of arbitrariness. In truth, it's a shock hitting the backbone of the American economy - migrant labor.
This is no longer just about individual stories. The economic damage can be measured in billions. Harvest losses because fields go untended. Revenue losses because cooks and cleaners are missing. Dairy farms report that cows can no longer be milked regularly - with devastating consequences for animal welfare and production. The retraining of staff swallows millions each week. Conservative early estimates show: direct harvest and production losses alone amount to 1.5 to 2.5 billion dollars per month. Revenue losses in the hospitality industry: 2.5 to 3 billion. Added to that, up to 1.2 billion in recruitment costs, up to 1.5 billion in logistics and infrastructure - and a long-term site loss that economists estimate could reach 80 to 200 billion annually. The tourism sector is also reporting massive declines: According to current figures from the U.S. Travel Association, the U.S. could lose an additional 1.3 to 1.6 billion dollars per month due to the absence of workers in hotels, theme parks, and airlines. Altogether, this results in a monthly total damage of at least 7 to 9 billion dollars. At the same time, the tourism industry warns: up to 260,000 jobs could be lost in this key sector - with long-term consequences for entire regions.
What was originally intended as a political signal to his base now threatens to spiral out of Trump's control economically. ICE agents stand with assault rifles on cattle farms, chefs flee kitchens, harvest workers avoid entire regions. Even legal migrants now fear being arrested at work. The economic price of this strategy of fear is enormous - and rising every day. Should Trump stick to this course, the U.S. could slip into a recession of its own making. Economists are already warning: the damage will take years to recover from - if at all. According to current forecasts, the growth of the U.S. economy is currently only 0.2 to 0.3 percent - while countries like North Korea, despite isolation, are experiencing growth of up to 2 percent. In addition, the next budget session in Congress is just weeks away. If Trump continues to allocate billions for ICE raids, deportation flights, and prison expansion, even moderate Republicans and Democrats in the Senate may withhold their approval. The political conflict over the federal budget is thus preprogrammed - and could become another economic risk.
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