Countdown to Catastrophe – Israel strikes, Trump threatens, Iran warns of war

Tehran is burning. On Wednesday night, Israeli fighter jets once again targeted key facilities in the Iranian capital – according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), two sites linked to Iran’s nuclear program were struck: the TESA Karaj facility and the Tehran Research Center. As smoke rises over the city, the streets remain empty. Shops are closed, traffic has come to a halt. It is day six of an escalating military confrontation that has already become a global warning sign. According to the human rights group Human Rights Activists, 585 people have been killed in Iran so far, including 239 civilians and 126 members of the security forces. The Iranian government no longer releases regular casualty figures. Human Rights Activists wurden bislang 585 Menschen im Iran getötet, darunter 239 Zivilist:innen und 126 Sicherheitskräfte. Die Regierung in Teheran veröffentlicht keine regelmäßigen Opferzahlen mehr.

Amid these attacks, all eyes turn to Washington. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump took to social media to demand the “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” of Iran. In the same post, he warned Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the U.S. knows where he is hiding – “though there are currently no plans to kill him.” Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, responded in an interview with Al Jazeera English with a stark warning: “Any American intervention would be a recipe for an all-out war in the region with very, very bad consequences for the entire international community.” Iran’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, called Trump’s rhetoric “hostile and unwarranted,” insisting that Iran’s nuclear program remains peaceful – despite Israel’s deliberate destruction of nuclear-related infrastructure. Footage broadcast on Iranian state television of a downed Israeli Hermes 900 drone was meant to underscore Iran’s defensive capability.

While political escalation plays out in Geneva, Washington, and Tehran, a quiet mass exodus is underway on the ground. Hundreds of Pakistani nationals fled across the Taftan and Gabd-Rimdan border crossings on Wednesday after their embassy issued an evacuation notice. Telecommunications worker Ghulam Mustafa Ijaz stated, “We packed only one bag with the bare necessities – we left everything else behind.” Thailand’s government also urged its remaining 350 nationals in Iran to leave immediately. A temporary shelter was established in Amol, and the embassy was relocated to Kordan. China expressed “deep concern” over the escalation. President Xi Jinping, speaking during a visit to Astana, declared that any violation of sovereignty was unacceptable – and called for immediate de-escalation. Chinese nationals were also instructed to leave Iran without delay.

While civilians flee to safety, military preparations are accelerating in the background. The Israeli army reported the destruction of five Iranian AH-1 attack helicopters at a military base in Kermanshah. At the same time, Iranian state media confirmed the loss of a key radar installation in the Soubashi complex in Hamedan province – a critical part of Iran’s western air defense system. In cyberspace, the conflict rages as well: two major Iranian banks – Bank Sepah and Bank Pasargad – were hit by cyberattacks. The hacker group “Gonjeshke Darande” (“Predatory Sparrow”) claimed responsibility for at least one of the attacks. Internet access in Iran has been severely restricted, and international phone calls have been limited. Meanwhile, the U.S. Air Force moved C-17 transport aircraft and refueling tankers to Scotland and Italy, and twelve F-16 fighter jets were redeployed from Aviano to Saudi Arabia. In Israel, the first repatriation flights from Cyprus landed in Tel Aviv. Transportation Minister Miri Regev personally greeted the crew – Israel’s airspace remains closed to civilian traffic due to ongoing Iranian rocket attacks. The conflict is no longer local. And the world stands still – caught between a lit fuse and a powder keg.