The war has been running for 32 days - and the world is paying the price

While Donald Trump spoke for nineteen minutes on the evening of April 1, 2026 in the Cross Hall of the White House without saying anything new, a crisis was unfolding around the Strait of Hormuz that now extends far beyond the Middle East. Traffic through the narrow passage has dropped by 90 percent since the start of the war. About one fifth of the world’s oil normally flows through this narrow corridor between Iran and Oman. Since Iran blocked it, the entire world is paying.

The oil price rose by more than four percent after Trump’s speech. Brent Crude, the international benchmark, climbed to 106.22 dollars per barrel. The American benchmark WTI rose to 104.36 dollars. Stock markets in Asia reacted with losses: Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell by 1.4 percent to 53,004 points, Seoul’s Kospi lost 3.4 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped by 0.8 percent. U.S. futures were also down more than 0.7 percent. Shortly after Trump finished speaking, sirens wailed in Bahrain - the country that hosts the home base of the U.S. Fifth Fleet.

Bahrain has already intercepted or seen 186 missiles and 419 drones impact on its territory in this war. Desalination plants, hotels, and the airport have been damaged. Bahrain’s UN ambassador Jamal Alrowaiei described Iran’s blockade of the strait as “economic terrorism” and called on the UN Security Council to pass a resolution allowing countries to use “all necessary means” to secure passage. Russia, China, and France blocked the current draft, and negotiations continued.

Saudi Arabia has responded as best it can. In March, the country rerouted around one million barrels of crude oil per day through a pipeline across the country to the Red Sea port of Yanbu - instead of sending it through the Strait of Hormuz as usual. Data from the market monitoring firm Kpler show that nearly four million barrels per day flowed through the Bab el Mandeb Strait in March, more than at any time since October 2023. But the pipeline is not enough to compensate for the loss. Before the war, Yanbu shipped between 750,000 and 850,000 barrels per day. That is only a fraction of what normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared before the National Press Club the same day and announced one billion Australian dollars - equivalent to around 689 million U.S. dollars - in interest free loans for companies in the fuel, fertilizer, and transport sectors. Truck drivers, freight companies, fuel suppliers, and fertilizer producers are meant to get through the crisis with this support. Albanese said these companies are not only affected by the crisis but are also crucial to helping Australia get through it.

David Miliband, president of the International Rescue Committee, warned at a press conference that more than 100,000 dollars worth of humanitarian aid from his organization is stuck in Dubai because the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. Miliband had previously visited Syria and war torn Lebanon. More than one million people have been displaced there since last month due to renewed fighting between Israel and the Hezbollah militia. “Thirty percent of the world’s fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz,” Miliband said, warning of a food crisis in the most vulnerable countries in the world. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has launched an initiative to enable humanitarian aid shipments through the strait.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the American public directly in English the same evening - through a letter he published on his X account. He asked which American interests this war actually serves and whether there had been an objective threat from Iran that would justify such action. He claimed Iran has never chosen aggression in its modern history and described Iran’s attacks on neighboring countries as a “proportionate response within the framework of legitimate self defense.” He asked whether America is acting as a proxy for Israel in this war, influenced and manipulated by its government. Pezeshkian did not mention a ceasefire proposal Trump had made the previous week.

Vice President JD Vance had spoken through intermediaries with the Iranian side as recently as Tuesday. He is said to have conveyed the message that Trump is impatient and that pressure on Iranian infrastructure will increase if no deal is reached. Trump himself reportedly instructed Vance to privately signal that he would agree to a ceasefire - under certain conditions that were not made public.

Trump himself said before his speech that the U.S. would withdraw from Iran “pretty quickly” but did not provide a timeline. After the withdrawal, the U.S. would return to carry out “targeted strikes” on specific targets if necessary. The enriched uranium lying in the rubble of an underground facility no longer concerns him. “It is so deep underground, I do not care,” he said. It would be monitored by satellite. Iran is now “no longer capable” of developing a nuclear weapon - how exactly that was achieved remained unclear. The uranium remains on Iranian soil.

While Trump was speaking, Iran fired missiles at Israel. Ten missiles were launched toward central Israel shortly before nightfall, one after another, as millions of Jewish families were preparing for the start of Passover. In Ramat Gan, a city east of Tel Aviv, families set festive tables in an underground shelter - next to sleeping tents. Three children were injured by glass fragments, including two infants aged seven months and a twelve year old. An eleven year old who had been severely injured by fragments on Wednesday morning remained in critical condition.

China stated the same day that it would work “in close coordination with Pakistan and relevant parties” toward ending the fighting. China’s foreign minister Wang Yi had met his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar in Beijing on Tuesday. Both governments presented a five point plan: ceasefire, peace talks, protection of civilian targets, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and stabilization of global energy supplies. Wang said it would not be an easy task, but China is ready to work with Pakistan to extinguish the “flames of war” as quickly as possible.

In Washington, Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican from Kentucky, and Senator Chris Coons, Democrat from Delaware, jointly expressed support for NATO - even before Trump’s speech. In a joint statement, they called NATO “the most successful military alliance in history” and recalled that its members fought alongside American soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq and lost their lives. The National Defense Authorization Act of 2023 stipulates that withdrawing from NATO requires a two thirds majority in the Senate or a separate act of Congress - Trump cannot decide this alone.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is expected in Washington next week. An unnamed White House official confirmed the visit. Trump and Rutte are considered to get along personally, but Trump is increasingly irritated by the refusal of alliance partners to support the U.S. in securing the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom and France in particular are under his criticism. Uncertainty about the future of the alliance is growing.

Democratic senators reacted sharply to Trump’s speech. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia said Trump owes Americans more answers about a conflict that is not only driving up gasoline prices but also the prices of diesel, fertilizer, aluminum, and other basic materials - with consequences that will last long after. Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut said Trump’s speech is “anchored in a reality that exists only in Donald Trump’s head.” No one in America knows after this speech whether the war will escalate or de escalate.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to testify before the House Armed Services Committee on April 29 - as part of the annual Pentagon budget hearing, together with General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Both are expected to answer questions about the goals, costs, and losses of the war.

Trump spoke for nineteen minutes. The world listened. Afterward, oil prices rose, stock markets fell, sirens wailed in Bahrain, and Iran fired missiles at Israel. None of this was new. None of it was over.