52 Percent Believe Trump Began the War Because of Epstein

A majority of American voters believe that Donald Trump launched the war against Iran at least partly to distract from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. That is the result of a survey by the institute Data for Progress, Washington, D.C., conducted between March 6 and March 8, 2026. A total of 1,272 likely voters were surveyed through a national web panel. 52 percent agreed with the statement that Trump had started the war at least partly as a distraction from the Epstein scandal. 40 percent rejected that. 8 percent were uncertain.

What makes this number significant is not only its size. It is the fact that not a single major American media organization had asked this question before. Anyone who had even proposed it internally would, at best, no longer have been invited to editorial meetings. Among Democrats approval stands at 81 percent. Among Republicans it still stands at 25 percent - meaning a quarter of the president’s own voter base believes their president started a war to push a justice issue out of the headlines. Among voters under 45 overall it is 66 percent.

A current survey shows that a narrow majority of voters in the United States believe Donald Trump undertook military steps against Iran at least partly to distract from the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.

The official codename of the operation was “Operation Epic Fury.” In public another name has long taken hold: “Operation Epstein Fury.” The Anti-Defamation League and the Washington Post described this renaming as antisemitic this week. The Post wrote that the spread of the term originated from a pro-Iranian propaganda network. The term “Epstein class,” however, was first used by American Democratic politicians. The Post had shortly before dismissed its entire Middle East team.

The survey also asked about Israel’s influence on Trump’s decisions. 47 percent said Trump acts more in the interest of the American people. 46 percent said he acts more in the interest of Israel. Among independents - the group that delivered Trump his election victory - 50 percent said he prioritizes Israeli interests. Among Democrats it was 75 percent. Asked whether the war primarily serves American or primarily Israeli interests, 50 percent answered American and 41 percent Israeli. No U.S. president has previously entered a war with 41 percent of the population convinced he was fighting it for another country.

55 percent of respondents oppose the war. Thirty-nine percent oppose it strongly. Only 42 percent support it. Forty-nine percent say the war will make their lives harder. Ten percent expect an improvement. One third expect no effect. For Democrats in Congress, the poll carries a clear message: anyone who supports the war would face about 79 percent less support in the 2026 primaries. This figure does not represent a vote share. It reflects a modeled drop in support within the Democratic electorate. Respondents were asked how they would react to candidates who support the war versus those who oppose it. The result suggests that a pro-war Democratic candidate would likely lose roughly 79 percent of their existing support in primary contests. A similar pattern appears for potential presidential candidates in 2028. Among Republicans the dynamic runs in the opposite direction – a pro-war candidate gains a net 39 percentage points. In a general election, however, a pro-war position carries a penalty of about minus 19 points.

At the same time the survey shows a tension that cannot easily be resolved. 83 percent of respondents say it is important to them that Iran does not possess missiles capable of reaching Israel. Only 13 percent believe countries fundamentally have the right to defend themselves with such weapons. Iran already possesses those missiles. Finally respondents were asked how much they had heard about the attack on a girls’ elementary school in southern Iran in which more than 180 people died, mostly children. 32 percent had heard nothing about it. 23 percent little. Among those who had heard about it, 70 percent said they believed Israel, the United States, or both together were responsible. 25 percent believed Iran itself had struck the school - a version Trump and other supporters of the war had spread without evidence. Among Republicans 45 percent believe that. The other 45 percent of Republicans hold the United States responsible.

The survey is not an indictment. It is a mirror. And that mirror shows a population that distrusts the war, distrusts its justification, and increasingly also distrusts the man who began it.