America Moves the Borders - and Europe Holds Its Breath

Trump is examining whether the United States should officially recognize Russian control over occupied territories in Ukraine. It feels like a political earthquake that had long been foreshadowed, only few expected it to break into the open so bluntly. While Europe insists that borders cannot be changed by force, Washington is testing a course that would legitimize exactly that. And suddenly the regions return to the table where people have lived for more than a thousand days under bombs, torture chambers, and occupation: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea. Places whose names have long stood for suffering - and now also for a possible diplomatic offering.

Trump’s confidant Steve Witkoff is on his way to Moscow together with Jared Kushner to present an offer Russia has wanted to hear for years. The first drafts included “de facto recognition” of Russian control. The revised plan is shorter, supposedly less friendly to Moscow, but the decisive point remains: the question of whether the United States is prepared to approve Putin’s territorial claims. A decision that would tear Europe apart and feel like a betrayal in Kyiv. Even in the White House there seems to be little concern left for European positions. “The Europeans can do whatever they want,” one person involved is said to have stated.

Putin plays his role perfectly. He speaks of “sovereignty” over territories that Russia controls only through force, and makes clear that recognition of these claims is the condition for any negotiation. The Kremlin’s signal is unmistakable: without territorial concessions there will be no peace. Ukraine’s constitution states the opposite - no president may give up land without asking the people. And Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s closest aide, puts it plainly: “No reasonable person would sign a document today to give up territory.”

Europe is holding to its position, also because it has no other choice. All security agreements, all commitments to Ukraine, all sanctions against Moscow are based on the principle that borders cannot be shifted by force. If the United States breaks this foundation, a decade of Western unity would collapse. And Europe would not know whether it can still rely on the United States in the future - or whether it must prepare for a world in which Washington strikes its own deals and expects partners to accept them. The distrust grows further because audio recordings have surfaced showing Witkoff explaining to Russian officials how to persuade Trump. He speaks about giving up Donetsk. Exactly the line that Kyiv can never accept. And yet it appears to have long become part of the conversation in Washington.

The latest American proposals leave the most sensitive points open. Territorial issues are to be discussed only directly between Trump and Zelenskyy. A meeting is not confirmed. Everything remains up in the air - and yet the direction is becoming clear. Kyiv is fighting for time, for security, for national dignity. Europe is fighting for its credibility. And Washington appears to be testing how far it can go before the West fractures.

If there is a moment that decides whether the next decade remains stable or slides into chaos, it is exactly this one. Because a war does not end by giving the aggressor what he demands. It ends when the international order proves stronger than the desire of one man to burn his political signature into the map.