At the limit of what is bearable – how Trump and Putin force Ukraine into a space from which there is no dignified exit

It feels like a moment in which several political axes are shifting at the same time. While Donald Trump publicly pressures Volodymyr Zelenskyy to sign his peace plan by Thanksgiving, Vladimir Putin is using this situation to present himself as a possible partner for a "final agreement." Both move toward each other, and both act as if the decision lies solely with Kyiv. But in reality, Ukraine is being pulled into a personal power game in which hardly anyone openly states what is actually on the table: the far-reaching surrender of its own claims, the collapse of former red lines, and a price imposed on a country that has been bombed every day for four years.

Putin chose a strikingly restrained tone for his comments. He spoke of a "new version" of the American plan, of a "modernized proposal" that could fundamentally "serve as the basis" for a final agreement. At the same time, he made clear why he believes Washington has not seriously discussed the text with Moscow: because the United States, in his view, is not able to secure Ukraine's consent. Zelenskyy, Putin said, rejects the proposal, and Europe continues to cling to the "dream of a strategic defeat of Russia." It was calculated. The message to his own population: Russia is ready to talk, Ukraine is blocking.

"President Trump's peace plan for resolving the situation in Ukraine was already discussed before the meeting in Alaska. During these preliminary discussions, the United States asked us to be flexible. The meeting in Alaska was intended to confirm these preliminary arrangements; despite some difficult points, we had agreed to these proposals. After the talks in Alaska, we noted a pause from the American side. We understand that this is due to Ukraine’s de facto rejection of the peace plan proposed by President Trump. I consider this to be the reason why the modernized version with 28 points has now appeared. We have this text and believe that it could also serve as the basis for a final peace agreement. However, this text is not being discussed with us in any substantive way, and I can guess why. The reason remains the same: the United States has so far not succeeded in obtaining Ukraine’s consent. Ukraine is against it. Nach den Gesprächen in Alaska haben wir von amerikanischer Seite eine Pause festgestellt. Wir verstehen, dass dies auf die faktische Ablehnung des von Präsident Trump vorgeschlagenen Friedensplans durch die Ukraine zurückzuführen ist. Ich halte dies für den Grund, warum nun die modernisierte Version mit 28 Punkten aufgetaucht ist. Wir haben diesen Text vorliegen und sind der Ansicht, dass auch er als Grundlage für eine endgültige Friedensregelung dienen könnte. Allerdings wird dieser Text mit uns in keiner substanziellen Weise besprochen, und ich kann mir denken, warum. Der Grund bleibt derselbe: Den USA ist es bisher nicht gelungen, die Zustimmung der Ukraine zu erhalten. Die Ukraine ist dagegen.

Ukraine and its European partners continue to be under the illusion that Russia can be defeated on the battlefield. I attribute this to a lack of competence and a lack of objective information about the actual situation on the front. Neither Ukraine nor Europe understands where this path may ultimately lead. If Ukraine does not want to discuss President Trump's peace proposal, that is acceptable to us; it opens the possibility of achieving the objectives of the special operation by military means. However, as I have often said, we are prepared to negotiate in order to resolve problems peacefully. But this requires a substantive discussion of all the details of the proposed plan. We are ready for this." Wenn die Ukraine nicht über den Friedensvorschlag von Präsident Trump sprechen möchte, ist das für uns akzeptabel; es eröffnet die Möglichkeit, die Ziele der Spezialoperation mit militärischen Mitteln zu erreichen. Wie ich jedoch schon oft gesagt habe, sind wir bereit, zu verhandeln, um Probleme auf friedlichem Wege zu lösen. Das setzt allerdings eine substanziell geführte Diskussion über alle Details des vorgeschlagenen Plans voraus. Wir sind dazu bereit.“

While this was happening, Trump increased the pressure on Zelenskyy. In a radio interview he said he wanted an answer "by Thursday" – a deadline that he described as "extendable" when asked, but at the same time defended as "appropriate." That an American president publicly sets deadlines before a war-torn country has even had the chance to discuss the conditions internally says much about the climate Trump deliberately creates: a pressure of time that appears outwardly like an ultimatum but is sold internally as an opportunity.

But the core of the 28 point paper creates more than irritation among Ukrainian and European diplomats. It is a proposal that grants Russia almost everything it has demanded since the beginning of the invasion – and requires Ukraine to give up central elements of its national self-determination. According to the draft, Ukraine would have to amend its constitution to permanently exclude NATO membership. It would have to recognize Russian territorial claims in Donbas, even where Ukraine still exercises control. The army would be capped at 600,000 soldiers, although it is far larger today. And there could never be NATO troops in the country, which would render European security guarantees practically ineffective.

"At the moment we are experiencing one of the most difficult moments in our history. At this moment, Ukraine could face a very difficult decision: either the loss of dignity or the risk of losing an important partner. Either the difficult 28 points or an extremely hard winter – the hardest – and further risks. A life without freedom, dignity and justice, and trust in someone who has already attacked twice. They will expect an answer from us. At the moment, the pressure on Ukraine is one of the heaviest. There will be a constructive search for solutions with the United States. I will present arguments, persuade and propose alternatives, but we will not give the enemy any reason to claim that Ukraine does not want peace. That will not happen."

Zelenskyy spoke in a video message about "one of the most difficult moments in our history." He warned that Ukraine could face "a very difficult decision": the loss of its own dignity or the risk of losing its most important international partner. That he did not name the United States was less restraint than diplomacy. Everyone knew who was meant. He emphasized that he would "present arguments, persuade and propose alternatives." He wanted to work constructively without giving Russia's opponents any reason to claim that Ukraine was refusing peace talks. Behind these formulations was the realization that Kyiv has to maneuver while its room for action is shrinking: the front is again coming under greater pressure, airstrikes are hitting the energy system, and the domestic situation is weakened by corruption allegations that have damaged the government.

Brussels and the European capitals were blindsided. Trump's team and Putin's people quietly drafted a 28 point "peace proposal" for Ukraine – and it is nothing less than total capitulation.

Europe reacted with alarm. Germany, France and the United Kingdom assured Zelenskyy that they would provide "full support" and would not accept any agreement that ignored their interests or those of Ukraine. They made clear that the Ukrainian army must remain capable of defending itself in the future and that issues affecting Europe cannot be decided without Europe. That this message was necessary shows how far the White House has gone with this proposal – and how much it has bypassed its partners.

At the same time, the Kremlin accused Kyiv of needing to negotiate "now" or face losing more territory. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Zelenskyy’s room for maneuver was shrinking and the situation was becoming more dangerous. But he said almost nothing about the substance of the plan. Russia did not want to negotiate "in megaphone mode," he said, and would stick to previous formats. That the government also let it be known that it had seen "possible new formulations" but had "received nothing official" was an attempt to shift responsibility for the pace onto Washington and Kyiv.

Trump has secured his place in the history books – as the president who was willing to hand Ukraine over to Putin in order to present himself as a "peacemaker." His 28 point plan is nothing more than a political declaration of surrender that gives Russia what it could not achieve with bombs. He places pressure on a friendly country as if it were a delinquent debtor and treats war like a business deal that needs to be closed quickly before anyone notices what is inside. Europe is made to look like a bystander who realizes too late that Trump has long been on Putin’s side. He destroys trust in the United States as a protective power and shows that the applause of an autocrat is more important to him than the survival of a democracy. His policy is not a mistake but a deliberate break with everything the West stood for over decades. And that is precisely why he will be remembered: as the president who traded freedom for personal glory.

The proposal itself comes from two men who could hardly be more different: Steve Witkoff, a Trump envoy for special missions, and Kirill Dmitriev, one of Russia’s most important contacts for foreign negotiations. Even the origin of the document shows how much this project was built outside established diplomatic structures. The consequences would be enormous. If Kyiv agrees, it will receive frozen Russian assets for reconstruction and security guarantees in the event of another attack, but many questions remain unanswered. What happens if Russia invades again? Who guarantees the military response? Which European interests are taken into account? And why should Moscow accept international benefits such as a return to the G-8 or reintegration into the global economy in the long term, when it has never stuck to long term commitments in any conflict?

Estonian lawmaker Marko Mihkelson put the concern bluntly: if Ukraine accepts this offer, "there will be no Ukraine anymore." And if Europe accepts it, the continent "must prepare for a direct war with Russia." These words may sound harsh, but they reflect the fear that a peace built on pressure rather than stability will not bring peace. Only a pause – until the next escalation.

In the end, a picture remains that is disturbingly clear: Trump pushes for speed, Putin pushes for division, and Ukraine is expected to accept a proposal that it had almost no influence over. The question is not only how it will respond, but how much freedom it still has to do so.