It is a clear warning signal amid economic policy turbulence: the US economy shrank by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025 \u2013 and thus more sharply than previously assumed. The Commerce Department announced this on Thursday. Back in May, only a 0.2% decline had been reported. It now appears that the economic slowdown is not a temporary blip, but the result of a political strategy that is becoming an increasing burden. At the center of the crisis stands President Donald Trump \u2013 more specifically, his renewed trade wars, particularly the abrupt tariff announcements on imports from Europe, China, and Mexico. The result was a frantic buying spree: in January and February, both companies and consumers stocked up massively on foreign goods before the new tariffs took effect. Imports skyrocketed \u2013 by a full 37.9%, the highest increase since 2020. Economically, however, this does not represent strength, but the opposite: since imports are mathematically subtracted from gross domestic product (GDP), they pulled growth down by nearly 4.7 percentage points. The government itself tried to portray the import boom as a one-off effect \u2013 but there is considerable doubt about that. As long as Trump's economic policy is based on permanent escalation, arbitrary tariff decisions, and withdrawal from multilateral trade agreements, foreign trade remains a long-term risk. There can be no talk of stability, as consumers are tightening their belts \u2013 and the government is cutting itself into a deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Particularly alarming: private consumption, the backbone of the US economy for years, lost significant momentum. While household spending had risen by a strong 4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it grew by a meager 0.5% between January and March. Analysts had expected a much stronger result. The Commerce Department also revised its own preliminary estimate downward. At the same time, federal government spending dropped drastically \u2013 a decline of 4.6%, the sharpest since 2022. In light of the Trump-driven budget cuts, particularly in health care, education, and support programs for children, the unemployed, and small business owners, the domestic economy is increasingly weakening itself. The austerity policy especially affects low-income groups \u2013 those who would immediately reinvest their money into the consumer cycle. Added to this are the economic side effects of nationwide ICE operations, which are disrupting entire work processes in agriculture, construction, and hospitality. Arrests at bus stops, in cafeterias, and on construction sites have created a climate of constant insecurity \u2013 with devastating consequences for production, supply chains, and local markets. Trump's economic plan \u2013 once touted as a renaissance of American entrepreneurship \u2013 is turning more and more into the disaster it always promised to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even the so-called \"core GDP\" \u2013 which reflects the true strength of the domestic economy, meaning consumption and private investment without volatile factors like exports, inventory, or government spending \u2013 raised concerns: growth was only 1.9%, down from 2.9% in the previous quarter and below the earlier estimate of 2.5%. For Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics, this is a \"troubling signal\" \u2013 even if he has not yet revised his short-term forecast. The good news: many economists expect a rebound in the second quarter. According to a survey by the data firm FactSet, GDP is expected to grow by 3% between April and June. The Commerce Department will release a first estimate on July 30. The crucial question will be whether the extreme import boom was truly a one-off effect. But the structural risks remain. The World Bank has already significantly downgraded its global growth forecasts \u2013 citing the increasing trade conflicts. And the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently warned that while Trump\u2019s tariff policy might reduce the trade deficit, it would come at the cost of a permanently weakened economy. What remains is a disconcerting picture: a government that proclaims economic strength is simultaneously cutting its way into stagnation, unsettling large parts of the working population through militarized deportation raids \u2013 and triggering a self-inflicted collapse through chaotic trade policy. America is paying a high price \u2013 for a promise that fulfills less and destroys more.<\/p>\n
Es ist ein deutliches Warnsignal inmitten wirtschaftspolitischer Sturmb\u00f6en: Die US-Wirtschaft ist im ersten Quartal 2025 um 0,5\u202f% geschrumpft \u2013 und damit st\u00e4rker als bisher angenommen. Das gab das Handelsministerium am Donnerstag bekannt. Noch im Mai war lediglich ein R\u00fcckgang von 0,2\u202f% beziffert worden. Nun zeigt sich: Die wirtschaftliche Abk\u00fchlung ist keine Momentaufnahme, sondern die Folge […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6284,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[47,7,41],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-us-business","category-topstory","category-trump-s-world"],"yoast_head":"\n