{"id":34704,"date":"2026-04-22T05:14:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T04:14:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kaizen-blog.org\/?p=34704"},"modified":"2026-04-22T05:22:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T04:22:39","slug":"trump-verlaengert-iran-pokert-und-beide-tun-so-als-gaebe-es-einen-waffenstillstand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kaizen-blog.org\/en\/trump-verlaengert-iran-pokert-und-beide-tun-so-als-gaebe-es-einen-waffenstillstand\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump extends, Iran gambles - and both act as if there is a ceasefire"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump had said he would never extend it. Then Pakistan\u2019s field marshal Asim Munir called. And Trump extended it anyway. The ceasefire, whose expiration he had accompanied for days with threats of bombing, lives on - officially at Islamabad\u2019s request, while America waits for a unified proposal from Tehran. Pakistan\u2019s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanks Trump personally on X and on behalf of Field Marshal Munir for his gracious approval. A sentence that sounds like courtesy and tastes like relief.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran rejected the extension as a unilateral declaration it does not recognize. And then Tehran behaved as if it still applied. The Revolutionary Guards are not firing. Ships are moving along coordinated routes. The blockade remains in place. Everyone is acting as if there is a ceasefire, while Iran officially says there is none. That is not a contradiction. That is diplomacy in its most honest form - you do what is necessary, and you say what you have to say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Vance stays, the market trembles<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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JD Vance is not traveling to Islamabad. The White House says that in light of the president\u2019s decision to extend the ceasefire and wait for an Iranian proposal, the American delegation will not travel for now. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner return to Washington to discuss how to proceed. The markets register this immediately. The S&P 500 turns negative, losing 0.6 percent after having risen by 400 points earlier. The Dow Jones falls by 293 points. The Brent oil price fluctuates between under 95 and just under 100 dollars before settling at 98.48 dollars. A rise of 3.1 percent in a single day that shows how tightly the world is tied to this war and how little it takes to shake it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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What Trump admits without saying it out loud<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As the official reason for the extension, Trump says the Iranian leadership is seriously divided, something he calls not unexpected. A sentence that contains more than it reveals. The United States is explicitly acknowledging that the representatives who might come to the negotiating table in Islamabad may not speak for those who control the weapons in Tehran. That is exactly what we described days ago - and now it is part of the official American reasoning for extending a ceasefire the other side never agreed to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s leadership has functioned differently since the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed by Israeli strikes on the first day of the war. His son Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded him, but he is injured, in hiding, has not appeared publicly, and how he makes decisions and issues orders remains unclear to outsiders. What remains is the Supreme National Security Council, a body of civilian and military representatives that has divided power among itself like an inheritance where no one is entirely sure what belongs to whom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ghalibaf, the man in the middle<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, nicknamed \"the butcher of Tehran,\" has become the face of this body and Iran\u2019s chief negotiator with the United States. He is 64 years old, holds a doctorate in political geography, a former Revolutionary Guard general, a former police chief, and for twelve years mayor of Tehran. A man with connections in every corner of the system and therefore perhaps the only one who could bring a deal home without the system collapsing above him. He had a trip to Islamabad on his agenda, but miscalculated without the Revolutionary Guard. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group says Iran\u2019s leadership has survived because it has multiple centers of power with overlapping responsibilities - factionalism is built into the DNA of this system. Ghalibaf has political capital among conservatives, but also support from reformists and centrist political forces. Reformist Ali Rabie called him in a newspaper column the representative of the country and the regime. That is not flattery. It is a political assignment of function.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ghalibaf said on Iranian state television that Iran wants a comprehensive agreement that would bring lasting peace and ensure that the United States does not attack the country again. This dangerous cycle must be broken, he said. The Revolutionary Guard saw it differently: weakness, as they call it, a loss of face. The United States attacked Iran twice during ongoing negotiations - once in the twelve day war in June, then again in the current conflict. That is not paranoia. That is experience. That is how they frame it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n