\n\u201cIf Iran does not accept that it has been defeated, Trump will strike harder.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
The White House is trying to manage this contradiction rhetorically. Leavitt openly threatened further attacks if Iran does not accept the reality of the moment. If Tehran does not understand that it has been militarily defeated, Donald Trump will ensure that Iran is hit harder than ever before. This is notable because diplomacy and renewed escalation are being spoken of at the same time. On one side, there are supposed to be productive talks, on the other side there are threats of an even harsher next wave of strikes. This is not a stable negotiating position. It is a pressure scenario in which Washington appears to hope that military dominance can force political consent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conflicting signals are also coming from within Republican circles. Mike Johnson claims the war is nearing its end and that its objectives have been achieved. In almost the same breath, however, he says Iran should closely observe the buildup of American troops in the region. It is not about ground troops, but Iran must take note of the deployment. In other words: even where there is talk of conclusion, new deterrence is being built at the same time. This aligns with reports of additional paratroopers and Marines in the region and shows that Washington itself is not acting as if this war has already been politically contained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, the war continues in very real terms. Many explosions are being heard in Mashhad in eastern Iran. The Israeli military stated that it had completed multiple waves of airstrikes on targets in Tehran and had also struck a submarine development center in Isfahan the day before. In Israel itself, sirens sounded again. Iran fired further missiles toward central and southern parts of the country, including areas near Dimona. From Lebanon, rockets and drones continued to be launched toward northern Israel. There is no sign of a genuine phase of calm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is particularly important that the civilian perspective remains clear. Residents in Tehran describe how Trump\u2019s threats against Iranian power plants have triggered anger and confusion among the population. The facts are heavy damage to residential buildings and a pharmacy in western Tehran. People often sleep only in fragments, message friends immediately after each impact, and fear that civilian infrastructure and innocent people will be targeted next. At the same time, the government has almost completely cut international internet connections. Even the state controlled domestic system functions only unreliably. This is a crucial point, because not only are bombs falling, but the ability to inform oneself, stay in contact, and organize daily life is also collapsing. Necessity drives improvisation, and people help each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The situation is already radiating across the entire region. Kuwait has once again summoned the Iranian ambassador after a drone attack on a fuel tank at the international airport. It was already the third time since the beginning of the war. Pakistan is simultaneously reaffirming its unwavering commitment to the security of Saudi Arabia, while at the same time being mentioned as a possible mediator for talks between Washington and Tehran. Qatar is easing rules for outdoor gatherings after a quieter phase, but the damage to its gas facilities remains severe. France speaks of 17 percent of gas capacity in Qatar being destroyed and of 11 million barrels of oil per day currently missing from the market. South Korea is trying to compensate for shortages through alternative supplies. Japan is already in talks with the International Energy Agency about possible additional releases from strategic reserves. The economic shockwave of this war is therefore already global.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Egypt is also continuing to try to preserve a diplomatic opening. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said the differences between Iran and the United States are bridgeable. Cairo is maintaining contact with the warring parties and hopes that negotiations could resume soon. He called it possibly the last opportunity to prevent a full escalation of the conflict. China is also calling for every window for peace to be used. Turkey is holding calls with several states in the region to push for deescalation. Behind all these efforts lies the same realization: if this window closes again now, the next step may no longer be controllable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet even the potential locations for mediation show how uncertain everything is. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said talks could take place in Islamabad over the weekend. A security analyst in Pakistan even spoke of rapid progress in indirect contacts, supported by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Army Chief Asim Munir, and other officials. At the same time, however, it is said that Iranian officials are extremely distrustful due to the targeted killing of political, military, and intelligence figures and would only agree to direct talks if Washington provides firm guarantees for an end to the attacks. Those guarantees are not visible so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Houthis in Yemen also show how complex the landscape has become. Three officials from the group said they support Iran historically and religiously, but that participation in the war will be decided solely in Yemen and not dictated by Tehran. This is important because it emphasizes both alignment and operational independence. So far, the Houthis remain on the sidelines, although in the past their attacks on ships in the Red Sea have severely disrupted global trade. This sidelined position alone shows that additional fronts remain possible, but will not automatically open along a fixed command structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, the war is intensifying in other parts of the region. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is expanding the area it controls in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military is advancing further there. The Lebanese health ministry reports 1,094 deaths since the start of this phase of the war, including 121 children and 81 women. Within 24 hours, another 22 people were killed and 153 injured. In Tyre, a paramedic who worked for a civil defense unit of the Amal movement was buried. The health ministry also stated that since the renewed escalation, 42 emergency workers have already been killed by Israeli attacks. Such numbers quickly disappear in the discussion of plans and counterproposals, but they say more about the real state of the war than any press conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In financial markets, every statement from Washington and Tehran is immediately priced in. Hopes for a ceasefire temporarily pushed oil prices down and stocks up. Later, new doubts followed. On Wall Street, prices initially climbed sharply because an end to the war seemed conceivable. Brent temporarily fell below 95 dollars again. But political uncertainty remains. Christine Lagarde warned that European companies may react more quickly to rising energy prices this time than after Russia\u2019s attack on Ukraine. The memory of inflation runs deep. In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency approved an emergency rule for E15 gasoline, a higher ethanol fuel blend, to slightly dampen prices at the pump. But even there, experts say it may only reduce costs by a few cents and could drive other costs higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Domestic pressure on Trump is also increasing. A new AP NORC poll shows that 59 percent of Americans consider the military approach toward Iran excessive. Forty five percent are very concerned about being able to afford gasoline in the coming months. At the same time, there is continued support for the goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. This is precisely the problem for the White House. The strategic objective finds support, the actual conduct of the war less and less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The fact that Trump is nevertheless scheduled to travel to Beijing on May 14 and 15 reinforces the impression of a president who is simultaneously managing war, announcing peace talks, and continuing major geopolitical engagements as if all of this could be neatly handled in parallel. That now appears doubtful. If negotiations were truly close to a breakthrough, it would have to be clearer who is talking, what is being discussed, and what is on the table. If they instead serve only as political staging, that also explains why Tehran mocks them so openly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the end of this day, there is therefore no diplomatic progress, but a strange in between situation. Washington speaks of productive talks, but will not say with whom. Tehran rejects the American plan, presents its own conditions, and ridicules the idea of ongoing negotiations. Israel continues to bomb targets in Iran and at the same time expands its operations in Lebanon. States such as Egypt, Pakistan, China, and Turkey try to keep a channel open, but trust is scarce. The Houthis are still holding back, the Gulf states remain nervous, energy markets react as if electrified, and for civilians in Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza all of this is not a strategic debate, but a daily reality of fear, fire, and disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The real signal of this Wednesday is therefore not that talks are taking place. The real signal is that governments are now speaking as if diplomacy and further escalation could coexist effortlessly. That is the most dangerous illusion of this war. <\/p>\n\n\n\n